Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 241900
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

MOC039-185-241909-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090324T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CEDAR AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. A 
NUMBER OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE WARNED AREA CONTINUE TO BE 
FLOODED...HOWEVER RAPID INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS THAT REMAIN FLOODED. NO 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD BEGIN 
TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3806 9352 3792 9354 3791 9358 3783 9358
      3782 9364 3775 9364 3774 9362 3758 9362
      3759 9408 3766 9408 3769 9407

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1003 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 930 AM (1430Z). CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD AND ALONG OF
THE FRONT...AS A STRONG SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE AS THEY ARE IN A BROKEN
LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING TRAINING STORMS AS THE
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LEVEL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...HOWEVER LAPS DATA SHOWED INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH 200 TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE
STORMS STAYING DISCRETE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WITH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A DRY SLOT AND A STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. FEEL THAT WHEN THIS OCCURS THE STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. IF BREAKS CAN OCCUR INSTABILITY WOULD INCREASE. HOWEVER EVEN
WITHOUT MUCH SUN MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WIND SHEAR A
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN...BUT ONCE THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE...WITH WIND SHEAR ALSO WEAKENING SOME AS A
RESULT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. THEREFORE A SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
EXITS TO THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT STARTS TO ACCELERATE THE
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THREE DISTINCT STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION. A
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

TODAY...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY OVERTAKING A DRY LINE IN KANSAS. LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 300 TO 500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CINH WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THERE IS A
WINDOW...ALBEIT SHRINKING...WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY REMAIN THE
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT WORK INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

AROUND SUNRISE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL TEND TO ACCELERATE THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BY THIS TIME WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...SO EXPECT DISCRETE STORMS TO QUICKLY LINE OUT. THIS
LINE WILL THEN MARCH EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST TO CARRY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR CLOUD BREAKS OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY GETTING A
WARM START...AND ANY SUNSHINE WOULD JUST INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.

WILL ALSO BE EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY BACK EAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PLATEAU INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ALL THAT MUCH
DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL VEER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COULD EASILY SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION.
THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LINE
OF STORMS ROLLS THROUGH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION. THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. ANY RAINFALL
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

LATE THIS WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. LONG WAVE CHARTS FAVOR STRONG
DIGGING OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THIS ENERGY AS
MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT SET UP. DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A COLD TAP FOR SOME
WET SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LIKELY AREA AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY CONTINUING TO BE FAVORED OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE
ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. PLENTY OF TIME TO HONE IN ON THIS ONE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH THE JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS TODAY.  JOPLIN WILL BE IMPACTED THIS
MORNING...WHILE STORMS WILL BE OVER SPRINGFIELD BY MID DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...BRINGING IN SOME
COOLER AIR.  A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DIP INTO THE ARF
CONTINUE.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>095-101>103.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
323 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED...HOWEVER...DUE TO A
HIGHLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE...SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...CREATING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR.

IN ADDITION TO TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS...WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 40
MPH AT TIMES TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NEOSHO AND SALEM. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...INTERACTING WITH GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
828 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STOVER                  38.44N  92.99W
03/24/2009                   MORGAN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGE TO SCHOOL IN TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N CARL JUNCTION       37.26N  94.57W
03/24/2009                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARL JUNCTION FIRE CHIEF INDICATED THAT HIGH WINDS
            ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW PRODUCED AN
            ESTIMATED 100 YARD WIDE DAMAGE PATH. A LARGE TREE WAS
            UPROOTED...SHINGLES WERE REMOVED FROM ROOFS AND SOME
            WINDOWS WERE BROKEN OUT OF A FEW CARS.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STOVER                  38.44N  92.99W
03/24/2009                   MORGAN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGE TO LUTHERAN SCHOOL IN TOWN.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

MOZ066-077-078-241430-
BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-
901 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN BARTON...SOUTHEASTERN
VERNON AND WEST CENTRAL CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 859 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERDELLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
936 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             EL DORADO SPRINGS       37.88N  94.02W
03/24/2009  E0.25 INCH       CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

            ALONG WITH 35 MPH WINDS.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1029 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     HAIL             4 ESE LOWRY CITY        38.12N  93.66W
03/24/2009  E0.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH