Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

RAPIDLY MOVING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS MADE IT ROUGHLY TO THE
HWY 65 CORRIDOR.

THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AS VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES
CLEARING WITH CLOUD STREETS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE BKN LINE OF
STORMS. IF TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AHEAD OF THE
LINE...ANY LOW LEVEL CAP WILL BE ERADICATED OR OVERCOME AND
MLCAPE VALUES JUMP ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

WIND SHEAR REMAINS STOUT AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
NE MO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 65KT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS
ARE A POTENT 40 TO 50 KT. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE
INDICATED ACROSS EASTERN KS AND OK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THIS
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF
THESE STORMS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER VORT PASSING TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION...
INCREASE LAPSE RATE AND LIKELY LEAD TO LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION...
PARTICULARLY IN DISCREET CELLS.

SPEAKING OF DISCREET CELLS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS LINE. THESE CELLS AS WELL AS ANY BOWING STRUCTURES
WILL BE QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE HWY 65 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...THEN
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FINALLY
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST. OVER THE LAST HOUR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SLOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CWA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA THE FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY NOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST. THE QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO TODAYS POPS IS JUST HOW
FAR EAST WILL THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BE AT 7 AM
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT FOR POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER LIFT.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM...ALL IN ALL THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND STALL
TONIGHT. THEN IT WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL BE
ELEVATED...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...
SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL DEPEND MOST ON THE EXACT TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL LATER ON TUESDAY THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE. DETAILS
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS BETTER KNOWN.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FALL WELL BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT STALLS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THE 00Z MED RANGE MODELS ARE TAKING THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THIS MORNING
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS NARROW BAND OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LAST ONLY ABOUT 25 MINUTES.
AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091345-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
845 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
 A FEW TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON.

  DISCUSSION:

 A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
 THIS MORNING. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLE WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR
 WILL RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BOWING LING SEGMENTS WILL BE
 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
 OF 60 MPH AND A FEW FAST DEVELOPING TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL
 SIZED HAIL AND A RISK FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
 MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING THE
 EASTERN OZARKS AROUND MIDDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
  LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
  INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
  THE AREA. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
  FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     TSTM WND GST     CONWAY                  37.50N  92.82W
03/08/2009  E55 MPH          LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 AM     HAIL             CONWAY                  37.50N  92.82W
03/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CONWAY                  37.50N 92.82W
03/08/2009                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUILDING DAMAGE REPORTED IN TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLIMAX SPRINGS          38.10N 93.05W
03/08/2009                   CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF TORN OFF BOAT STORAGE COMPANY WITH HIGH WINDS
            REPORTED.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW BRANCH            37.93N 93.05W
03/08/2009  E50 MPH          CAMDEN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
911 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N VERSAILLES          38.45N 92.84W
03/08/2009                   MORGAN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL MINI BARNS BLOWN ONTO HIGHWAY W NORTH OF TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     TSTM WND DMG     63 N ROCKY MOUNT        39.18N 92.72W
03/08/2009                   XXX                XX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN BLOWN OVER ONTO HIGHWAY W.

&&

HATCH