Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS JUST NOW CROSSING THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE HAS BEEN MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF DAMAGE NEAR THE
TOWN OF HAMMOND IN BOURBON COUNTY WITH AN EARLIER STORM. AT THIS
TIME DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
QUICK EVOLVING TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ENHANCING FEATURES SUCH AS
REAR INFLOW NOTCHES.

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...BUT
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
STILL CONDUCING OF SUPPORTING SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...THEN
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FINALLY
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST. OVER THE LAST HOUR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SLOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CWA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA THE FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY NOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST. THE QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO TODAYS POPS IS JUST HOW
FAR EAST WILL THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BE AT 7 AM
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT FOR POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER LIFT.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM...ALL IN ALL THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND STALL
TONIGHT. THEN IT WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WILL BE
ELEVATED...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...
SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL DEPEND MOST ON THE EXACT TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL LATER ON TUESDAY THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE. DETAILS
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS BETTER KNOWN.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FALL WELL BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT STALLS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THE 00Z MED RANGE MODELS ARE TAKING THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THIS MORNING
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LINE WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS NARROW BAND OF RAIN...WHICH WILL LAST ONLY ABOUT 25 MINUTES.
AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
 AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THROUGH 900 AM.
 AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR FROM 900 AM TO NOON.

  DISCUSSION:

 A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING. MODEST INSTABILITY
 AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS. BOWING LING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW
 FAST DEVELOPING TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
 ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...CLEARING THE EASTERN OZARKS BY
 EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
  LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
  INTO TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
  THE AREA. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
  FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
742 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W EL DORADO SPRINGS   37.88N  94.04W
03/08/2009  E40 MPH          CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

0722 AM     HAIL             1 W EL DORADO SPRINGS   37.88N  94.04W
03/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
748 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             SCHELL CITY             38.02N  94.12W
03/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
802 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             2 S HORTON              37.95N  94.36W
03/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       VERNON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     TSTM WND GST     COLE CAMP               38.46N  93.20W
03/08/2009  E50 MPH          BENTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TSTM WND GST     PURDY                   36.82N  93.92W
03/08/2009  E60 MPH          BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     TSTM WND GST     BOIS DARC              37.26N  93.51W
03/08/2009  E50 MPH          GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

0812 AM     HAIL             BOIS DARC              37.26N  93.51W
03/08/2009  E0.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

HATCH