Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT
AS IT CROSSES WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND BLUE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY SLOWS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER ON SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT ARE
LIMITED BY A DOME OF CIRRUS. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONNECTED TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TN/KY WILL PROVIDE AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. MORE SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THIS
CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE.
ALSO...STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH MORE
FAVORABLE LOLL SHEAR ARRIVING WITH OUTFLOW FROM BLUE RIDGE STORMS. HVR
RAIN OBSERVED OVER KY...WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE
CWA...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL WATER
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG NW NC...WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...THIS
DRENCHED AREA WOULD BE THE MOST FLOOD PRONE. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT...AND IF THIS PANS OUT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THOSE COUNTIES WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SINKING EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH...MUCH OF THE COVERAGE
ACROSS KY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG SW VA ON THURSDAY.
AFTER TONIGHTS RAINFALL...AND MORE ON THE WAY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WETTER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
WITH TRAINING STORMS LIKELY CONSIDERING BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON PENDING RECHARGE OF ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHTS WAVE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS
NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MODERATE SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER...HAIL AND WIND. IN ADDITION...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST WITH PWATS PROJECTED BE 1.5-2
INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING FRONT OVERTOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. PROXIMITY OF FRONT SUGGESTS CHC POPS AGAIN
SATURDAY BUT MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA.

FOR TEMPS...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY UNTIL FRONT COMES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE
FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT ATLANTA...BUT NEITHER MODEL COMPLETELY RID CWA
OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP THREAT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
CHC SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL COME CLOSE TO
LWB...POSSIBLY PRODUCING TEMPO IFR. VCTS/CB INCLUDED AT OTHER TAF
SITES FOR HIT OR MISS STORMS. IF RAIN AND STORMS OVER KY MAKE IT
OVER THE APPS TODAY...THEN PREDOMINATE SHWS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED
INTO TERMINALS FARTHER EAST. MODELS INDICATING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KDAN NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO DID AT LEAST
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
SOLUTION. NONETHELESS...IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVIER MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL APPROACH LWB/BLF NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT LWB FROM VLIFR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY CLD BREAKS WILL ALLOF FOG TO FORM QUICKLY THERE.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR IN PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOME LOW CLDS AND VIS IS POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
AS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
OVER THE VA/NC BORDER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/PH
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-110815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
408 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF THE STORMS MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND A
FEW MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AGAIN...TRAINING OF THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1110 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             2 N HILLSVILLE          36.80N 80.73W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 2 MINUTES

0340 PM     HAIL             HILLSVILLE              36.77N 80.73W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

            DOWNTOWN HILLSVILLE

0353 PM     HAIL             HILLSVILLE              36.77N 80.73W
06/09/2009  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0418 PM     HAIL             CANA                    36.58N 80.67W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NW FLOYD              36.97N 80.38W
06/09/2009  M0.75 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

0505 PM     HAIL             MILLBORO                37.97N 79.60W
06/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       BATH               VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM     HAIL             8 W NORTH WILKESBORO    36.17N 81.29W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       WILKES             NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL AT PURLEAR

0545 PM     HAIL             3 W WHITEHEAD           36.47N 81.20W
06/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       ALLEGHANY          NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THUMBSIZE HAIL SEVERAL INCHES DEEP. NCDOT ALSO CALLED OUT
            3 MOTOR GRADERS TO CLEAR ROADS OF GRAVEL AND DEBRIS IN
            THE WHITEHEAD NC AREA.

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N LEVEL CROSS         36.39N 80.63W
06/09/2009  E60.00 MPH       SURRY              NC   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND DIME HAIL ALSO REPORTED

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENT MOUNTAIN           37.15N 80.12W
06/09/2009  U0.00 MPH        ROANOKE            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG US 220

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE AMHERST            37.64N 78.99W
06/09/2009                   AMHERST            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 29 AND STATE ROUTE
            610

0630 PM     HAIL             5 WNW HILLSVILLE        36.79N 80.82W
06/09/2009  E0.50 INCH       CARROLL            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W NEW CANTON          37.70N 78.37W
06/09/2009  U0.00 MPH        BUCKINGHAM         VA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW CANTON              37.70N 78.30W
06/09/2009  U0.00 MPH        BUCKINGHAM         VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW NEW CANTON         37.68N 78.34W
06/09/2009  U0.00 MPH        BUCKINGHAM         VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE BUCKINGHAM        37.65N 78.42W
06/09/2009                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VDOT REPORTED TREES BLOCKING ROAD AT INTERSECTION OF
            ROUTE 610/672

0710 PM     HAIL             2 S WEST JEFFERSON      36.37N 81.50W
06/09/2009  E0.88 INCH       ASHE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ENE DILLWYN           37.59N 78.31W
06/09/2009                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VDOT REPORTED TREES BLOCKING ROUTE 617 NEAR THE
            BUCKINGHAM/CUMBERLAND COUNTY LINE

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DILLWYN             37.54N 78.41W
06/09/2009                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VDOT REPORTED TREES BLOCKING ROUTE 650

0733 PM     HAIL             CHILDRESS               37.07N 80.52W
06/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW CANTON              37.70N 78.30W
06/09/2009                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VDOT REPORTED TREES BLOCKING ROAD NEAR POST OFFICE

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW NEW CANTON         37.65N 78.36W
06/09/2009                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            VDOT REPORTED TREES BLOCKING ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            ROUTE 676/671

0800 PM     HAIL             CONCORD                 37.35N 78.98W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

0800 PM     HAIL             3 SE PHENIX             37.05N 78.71W
06/09/2009  E1.75 INCH       CHARLOTTE          VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VEHICLES DENTED AND WINDSHIELDS SHATTERED.

0827 PM     HAIL             CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE   37.05N 78.63W
06/09/2009  M0.75 INCH       CHARLOTTE          VA   AMATEUR RADIO

1016 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E PROVIDENCE          36.50N 79.30W
06/09/2009                   CASWELL            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW YANCEYVILLE       36.40N 79.39W
06/09/2009                   CASWELL            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD

1024 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE MAYFIELD          36.50N 79.52W
06/09/2009                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CHANDLER MILL RD

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E YANCEYVILLE         36.41N 79.32W
06/09/2009                   CASWELL            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD

&&

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

VAZ010-011-013-014-101945-
BLAND VA-GILES VA-MONTGOMERY VA-PULASKI VA-
242 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLAND...CITY OF RADFORD...
GILES...MONTGOMERY AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
POPLAR HILL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WHITE GATE AROUND 250 PM...THESSALIA AROUND
300 PM...POPLAR HILL...AND DUBLIN AROUND 315 PM...BANE AROUND 320
PM...PARROTT AROUND 330 PM...MC COY...EGGLESTON AND AND PEMBROKE
AROUND 335 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3738 8045 3711 8039 3707 8099 3725 8103

EXPERIMENTAL

KK

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