Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
827 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OHIO...WITH A LEE TROUGH
REMAINING DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBTLE SHRTWV DROPPING INTO EAST TN AND WESTERN NC IS FORECASTED
TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS IT TAKES A FAVORABLE SE TRACK. THIS HAS
PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH BUMP FOR STORMS TO FIRE. RUC13 INDICATES THAT
THE SHRTWV WILL EXPAND UP AND DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS
EVENING...LIKELY KEEPING STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ATMS
HAS BEEN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS...AND SOME STORMS WILL GO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND DMGG WINDS MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED ATTM. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION ATTM PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ALONG
THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER STILL BATTLING A WNW DOWNSLOPE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE INC LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST AS A H3 JET
STREAK...ALBEIT WEAK...CUTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A NNE TO
SSE ORIENTATION. SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN
MCS SPINNING OFF OF THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH TO SOUTH...SO THERE IS SOME VALIDITY
TO THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS COMPLEX MAY
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE LEFT SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS...ONLY CHC...IN THE FVX/DAN CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO OHIO TOMORROW DOES ALLOW WINDS TO
BACK WEDNESDAY...SO THE LIMITING DOWNSLOPING WIND OF TODAY MAY NOT
BE A FACTOR. WITH WINDS NOT AS UNIDIRECTIONAL ON WED...HODOGRAPHS
GET A TAD LONGER...AND INTRODUCTION OF LLVL SHR SUGGESTS MORE
TSTORMS AND MORE SVR POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHING
THE MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT A
STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY TRAVERSING THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ENERGY ARRIVING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY...THE LATTER WAVE HELPING TO KICK NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

MODEL PROGS SUGGEST STRONG NOCTURNAL JET TO SET UP FROM TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS SUCH...THINK
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO TRAVERSE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS COMBINATION OF
OUTFLOWS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM INEVITABLE GIVEN
COMBINATION OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL
FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS OVER OUR FCST AREA WILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE SURFACE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT ATLANTA...BUT NEITHER
MODEL COMPLETELY RID CWA OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP THREAT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHC SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WAS STARTING TO DIMINISH AT
00Z WITH NO STORMS UPSTREAM OF ANY OF THE TAFS SITES.

SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT SO MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED.

STORMS ONCE AGAIN MAY ARRIVE AT LWB/BLF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS A STRONGER SHRTWV AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HIT THE OHIO
VALLEY. ONLY USED VCTS FOR LYH/DAN/ROA THIS FAR OUT.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR IN
PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOME LOW CLDS AND VIS IS POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
AS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
OVER THE VA/NC BORDER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-102000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENT MOUNTAIN           37.15N 80.12W
06/09/2009  U0 MPH           ROANOKE            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG US 220

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             CONCORD                 37.35N 78.98W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
908 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NW FLOYD              36.97N 80.38W
06/09/2009  M0.75 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

0636 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W NEW CANTON          37.70N 78.37W
06/09/2009  U0 MPH           BUCKINGHAM         VA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW CANTON              37.70N 78.30W
06/09/2009  U0 MPH           BUCKINGHAM         VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW NEW CANTON         37.68N 78.34W
06/09/2009  U0 MPH           BUCKINGHAM         VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

DOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
921 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ005-006-VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-100330-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EDEN...BEDFORD...AMHERST...DANVILLE...
LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE
921 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

...EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO CONTINUE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND RUNOFF COULD CAUSE CREEKS...STREAMS...AND DITCHES TO
APPROACH BANK FULL. LOCALIZE STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
928 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE   37.05N 78.63W
06/09/2009  M0.75 INCH       CHARLOTTE          VA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DOC

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