Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OHIO...WITH A LEE TROUGH
REMAINING DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBTLE SHRTWV DROPPING INTO EAST TN AND WESTERN NC IS FORECASTED
TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS IT TAKES A FAVORABLE SE TRACK. THIS HAS
PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH BUMP FOR STORMS TO FIRE. RUC13 INDICATES THAT
THE SHRTWV WILL EXPAND UP AND DOWN THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THIS
EVENING...LIKELY KEEPING STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ATMS
HAS BEEN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS...AND SOME STORMS WILL GO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND DMGG WINDS MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED ATTM. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION ATTM PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ALONG
THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER STILL BATTLING A WNW DOWNSLOPE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE INC LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST AS A H3 JET
STREAK...ALBEIT WEAK...CUTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A NNE TO
SSE ORIENTATION. SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN
MCS SPINNING OFF OF THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE ALMOST DUE NORTH TO SOUTH...SO THERE IS SOME VALIDITY
TO THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS COMPLEX MAY
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE LEFT SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS...ONLY CHC...IN THE FVX/DAN CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO OHIO TOMORROW DOES ALLOW WINDS TO
BACK WEDNESDAY...SO THE LIMITING DOWNSLOPING WIND OF TODAY MAY NOT
BE A FACTOR. WITH WINDS NOT AS UNIDIRECTIONAL ON WED...HODOGRAPHS
GET A TAD LONGER...AND INTRODUCTION OF LLVL SHR SUGGESTS MORE
TSTORMS AND MORE SVR POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHING
THE MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT A
STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY TRAVERSING THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ENERGY ARRIVING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY...THE LATTER WAVE HELPING TO KICK NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

MODEL PROGS SUGGEST STRONG NOCTURNAL JET TO SET UP FROM TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS SUCH...THINK
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO TRAVERSE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS COMBINATION OF
OUTFLOWS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SEEM INEVITABLE GIVEN
COMBINATION OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFTING MECHANISMS. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL
FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS OVER OUR FCST AREA WILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE SURFACE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH. BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT ATLANTA...BUT NEITHER
MODEL COMPLETELY RID CWA OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP THREAT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHC SHRA/TSRA...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STORM STARTING TO FIRE THIS PM SW OF KBLF AND WEST OF KLWB. ATMS
IS UNSTABLE AND THESE STORMS ALONG WITH THEIR OUTFLOW WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF CB
AND VCTS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN KLWB/KBLF
WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THIS PM. MORE SHWS
TODAY AND LESS CLDS TONIGHT COULD SEND LWB/LYH/DAN INTO IFR VIS
TONIGHT. IF CLDS FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH...SEVERAL HRS OF LIFR VIS MAY OCCUR AT LWB. LOCAL WRF
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR TSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP ALONG CENTRAL VA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD AFFECT LYH/DAN...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. STORMS
ONCE AGAIN MAY ARRIVE AT LWB/BLF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A STRONGER SHRTWV AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HIT THE OHIO VALLEY.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR IN PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOME LOW CLDS AND VIS IS POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
AS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
OVER THE VA/NC BORDER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-102000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             CHILDRESS               37.07N 80.52W
06/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENT MOUNTAIN           37.15N 80.12W
06/09/2009  U0 MPH           ROANOKE            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG US 220

&&

DOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
815 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             CONCORD                 37.35N 78.98W
06/09/2009  M0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

&&

DOC