Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING PRODUCTS TO EXPAND SEVERE WATCH 262 EASTWARD
THROUGH REMAINING COUNTIES IN WEST KENTUCKY. THE WCN HAS ALREADY
BEEN SENT. MAIN CONCERN WAS TO KEEP THE WATCH AHEAD OF THE ELEVATED
SUPERCELL MOVING INTO THE SHAWNEE FOREST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/

DISCUSSION / TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER
THE FA. THE BOUNDARY WAS MAINLY EVIDENT VIA PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STREAMLINE WINDS. VIS SAT LOOP DEPICTS AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK VORT MAX ABOUT TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WAS ALSO SUPPORTED WELL WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP.

SLIGHT PLACEMENT AND QPF DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 12Z THU MODEL RUNS
AND THE 00Z THU ECMWF RUN INCLUDED. OPTED TO GO WITH A HYBRID QPF
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS...00Z THU ECMWF...HPCQPF...AND COLLABORATION. AT
THIS POINT AM EXPECTING AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER SW MO OVERNIGHT AND
MAKE ITS WAY INTO PAH FA AROUND SUNRISE AND RESULT IN ONE TO TWO
INCHES OVER MOST OF THE FA FRIDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING QPF INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL WAIT
FOR THE 12Z ECMWF AND POSSIBLY THE 18Z MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL BE MORE
FOR THE EVENING SHIFT. HOWEVER WILL MONITOR AND MAKE CALL CLOSER TO
PRESS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS NOT MANY CHANGES JUST MINOR TWEAKS FOR MAINLY
COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

DISCUSSION / SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH REST FOR THE WEARY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. RW/TRW MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TAP INTO
DECENT POST FRONTAL MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MODELS PUSH PRECIP CHANCES INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP (SCHC/CHC POPS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE FRINGES OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...THE BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE GET SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SO THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW MOVING. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRAGS ACROSS
THE REGION.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS AND VSBY WERE LIFTING AT KEVV AND KOWB. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
VSBY TO PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE TSRA NEAR KEVV AND
KOWB THIS AFTN. BRING IN LOW DECK OVNGT BUT KEEP IT MAINLY VFR AGAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSRA/SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BROUGHT IN
PREDOMINANT TSRA AFTER 12Z ALL SITES.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
KENTUCKY AND KOWB/KEVV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING SE WILL IMPACT KCGI/KPAH
MAINLY AFTER 4 TO 5AM. IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR PERIOD WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. APPEARS TO BE A LULL BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH JUST SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z FRIDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE...MAINLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-082030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
323 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS TWO SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

JP

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