Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RUNNING WAY BEHIND SO WILL TRY TO BE BRIEF. AS ONE MCS EXITS THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THE KANSAS
MCS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI OR
NOT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
IT.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAINS MUCH OF THE AREA
RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
FLOOD WATCH.

EVOLUTION BEYOND TODAYS MCS IS UNCLEAR...BUT THE MODELS ALL HAVE A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE AND SURGE
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...ENDING UP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED RAINFALL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. BEST CHANCES SOUTH WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FAVORED FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AM SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR NORTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY DRY WEATHER IS STILL FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY NOW OUT OF THE AREA. FOCUS TURNS TO THE MASSIVE
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR WEST. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ARRIVE AT KCGI
BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT EAST WITH TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE INTENSE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND OF COURSE IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. COULD HAVE ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THIS COMPLEX ARRIVES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS
AFTERNOON...BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS POISED TO GO
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091445-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGHOUT
THE QUAD STATE TODAY. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY 10 AM.

A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO NEAR HICKMAN KENTUCKY. AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTERACTS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 3 PM. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE LINE
OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND
MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
SATURDAY...AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA TODAY.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1209 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
05/08/2009                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED PONDING OF ROADS ACROSS THE CITY. VISIBILITY WAS
            DOWN TO ONE BLOCK.

&&

KELLYH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
05/08/2009                   PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROADWAYS. THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
            RAINFALL IN LESS THAN THIRTY MINUTES.

&&

KELLYH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ086-087-090-091-094-KYZ005-007-008-010>014-081815-
MASSAC-POPE-HARDIN-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-CRITTENDEN-LIVINGSTON-
CALDWELL-MCCRACKEN-LYON-MARSHALL-TRIGG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALVERT CITY...EDDYVILLE...HARRISBURG...
LONE OAK...MARION...PADUCAH AND REIDLAND
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DIME SIZE HAIL...AND VERY STRONG
WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDDYVILLE TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND
RIVERS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED...SO MOVE INDOORS TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. STRONG
WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND DEBRIS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ075-076-081-081815-
FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENTON...CHRISTOPHER...FAIRFIELD...MOUNT
VERNON AND REND LAKE AREA
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH PEA SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REND LAKE AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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