Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RUNNING WAY BEHIND SO WILL TRY TO BE BRIEF. AS ONE MCS EXITS THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THE KANSAS
MCS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI OR
NOT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
IT.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE FORM MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAINS MUCH OF THE AREA
RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
FLOOD WATCH.

EVOLUTION BEYOND TODAYS MCS IS UNCLEAR...BUT THE MODELS ALL HAVE A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE AND SURGE
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...ENDING UP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED RAINFALL AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. BEST CHANCES SOUTH WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FAVORED FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AM SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR NORTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. EITHER WAY DRY WEATHER IS STILL FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY NOW OUT OF THE AREA. FOCUS TURNS TO THE MASSIVE
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR WEST. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ARRIVE AT KCGI
BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT EAST WITH TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE INTENSE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND OF COURSE IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. COULD HAVE ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THIS COMPLEX ARRIVES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS
AFTERNOON...BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS POISED TO GO
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091445-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
944 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGHOUT
THE QUAD STATE TODAY. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY 10 AM.

A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO NEAR HICKMAN KENTUCKY. AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTERACTS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...WITH AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 3 PM. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE LINE
OF STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND
MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
SATURDAY...AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA TODAY.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
940 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     DOWNBURST        CALVERT CITY            37.03N 88.35W
05/08/2009                   MARSHALL           KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            HUNDREDS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN. ROOF PARTIALLY OFF 1 BUSINESS...AND SEVERAL HOMES
            WITH ROOF DAMAGE. NUMEROUS SHEDS AND CARPORTS DESTROYED.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     TSTM WND GST     DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/08/2009  M79 MPH          RIPLEY             MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1051 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/08/2009                   RIPLEY             MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN RIPLEY COUNTY. 2 MAIN BUILDINGS IN
            DOWNTOWN DONIPHAN LOST THEIR ROOFS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

CW