Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS AS THO MAIN SVR RISK IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
WITH CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. HOWEVER...SFC LOW/COLD FRONT IS STILL
OUT WEST OF THE SGF AREA...AND THE AIR MASS MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
RECOVER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SFC LOW COMES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THAT OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW 12Z-18Z FOR STORM
REDEVELOPMENT AND A HAIL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL COLD POOL.
COULD ALSO BE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...ALLOWING DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SFC. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.

POPS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW RACES EAST. WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH A COUPLE OF
NICE EASTER WEEKEND DAYS. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH GAVE US
THE NICE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT EAST AND THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL
RACE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT WEST OF
THE MS RVR LATE IN THE DAY ON EASTER SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF IN MOST AREAS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT
MANY LOCATIONS. SVR THREAT SUN NIGHT LOOKS LESS RIGHT NOW...AS MAIN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH.

MON-TUE THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NE INTO AND THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...SO THEY STILL LOOK LIKE CLOUDY/POTENTIALLY SHOWERY DAYS
BEFORE NICE SPRING-TIME WEATHER RETURNS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN EARLIER.
BY MIDDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION...AND MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THEN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND LESS INTENSE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MEFFERT/MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1104 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>004-014-015-018>020-
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
1104 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN. WITH THIS REGION CLOSE TO AN
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER WATCH BOX...THERE COULD BE A THREAT THAT
STORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS OR POSSIBLY
A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WITH IT. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.

KYZ005>013-016-017-021-022-111000-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
1104 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT. REFER TO THE WATCH
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WABASH AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS. REFER TO THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WITH IT. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1110 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 AM     HAIL             SHARPE                  36.97N 88.46W
04/10/2009  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1114 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     HAIL             4 S CALVERT CITY        36.98N 88.35W
04/10/2009  M0.88 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE HAIL REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 24.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             LEDBETTER               37.05N 88.50W
04/10/2009  M0.88 INCH       LIVINGSTON         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1121 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             CALVERT CITY            37.03N 88.35W
04/10/2009  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY