Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL TROF AXIS...WHICH WAS THE SOURCE OF DYNAMICS FOR THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE PAH FCST AREA...WAS
ABOUT MID WAY THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. THE LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
CURRENTLY IN THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
TAKING ON A MORE WEST TO EAST COMPONENT... WHICH WILL BRING ITS
ORIENTATION MORE IN LINE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND THEREFORE
CHANGE THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND LESSEN SEVERITY. STILL...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE TOR WATCH AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. ALL PCPN SHOULD BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE PAH
FCST AREA...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND AS DRY AIR PUNCHES IN SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL
TROF/SFC LOW. WINDS WILL SLACKEN INTO THE EVE.

A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON MON NIGHT. WHILE THE GREATER CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN
WILL BE IN THE SW...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE
NORTH IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THEN...THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SFC COLD
FRONT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY/S SYSTEM...WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WITH TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST AND THE SREF SEEMED LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. BY SUNRISE WED...THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOST OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND POST FRONTAL SHWRS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF SOME
MINOR SNOWFALL IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS HIGH SFC
PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SOME MED RANGE MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES HINT AT A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF OVERRUNNING TYPE PCPN IN THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
BUT THE SIGNALS WERE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE FCST...YET.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT RIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS ERN PARTS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS 50 TO
55 KTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN KY/SWRN
IND. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE KEVV AND KOWB TERMINALS THROUGH
22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND THE CONVECTION. WEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1114 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091115-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1114 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL AND CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI...TO KARBERS RIDGE ILLINOIS...TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
220 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND CHAIN             37.25N 89.02W
03/08/2009  E55 MPH          PULASKI            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND GST     MIDWAY                  37.23N 88.62W
03/08/2009  E55.00 MPH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAYSONW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

INZ082-086>088-KYZ006-008>022-082145-
PIKE-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-
CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...
ROCKPORT...MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON
234 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS LINE IS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL. AS THIS AREA MOVES
EAST...CITIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INCLUDING
REIDLAND...BENTON...MURRAY... CADIZ...MADISONVILLE...EVANSVILLE AND
OWENSBORO COULD EXPERIENCE THESE PHENOMENA. WHEN THESE STORMS
ARRIVE...WE ASK THAT YOU PLEASE STAY INDOORS. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TORNADO          4 N SIMS                38.42N 88.54W
03/08/2009                   WAYNE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATION SPOTTED IN MIDDLE OF FIELD. DAMAGE REPORTED JUST
            NORTH OF ROTATION. CLOUD WAS BLACK AND ROTATING AT GROUND
            LEVEL AND MOVING EAST.

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S CLAY CITY           38.60N 88.35W
03/08/2009                   WAYNE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 HOMES DAMAGED...1 WAS A BRICK HOME WITH ROOF COMPLETELY
            GONE. 2 FARM SHEDS DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED

&&

JAYSONW

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