Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
758 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE STORM
RISK TODAY...THEN WITH A RETURNING WARM FRONT / ASSOCIATED PRECIP
AND TEMPS / LATER MONDAY INTO TUE.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. MODELS ARE STILL NOT VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO PRODUCE A LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...ESP AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...AND IS MAINLY CONCERNED
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
..HAIL...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IVOF STATIONARY FRONT...BUT
REDUCED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
MODELS CONSISTENTLY PLAYING DOWN POPS.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BOTH GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...SPREADING POPS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER 12Z TUE...THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR
AGAIN...WITH A WARM FRONT IN NRN PARTS OF THE REGION OR PERHAPS
ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON TUE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS A
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT... SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY AND
WELL INTO THE EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING
SFC LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ZIP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SVR
WX DOES SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME UNCERTAINTIES AMONG THE MED RANGE MODELS AS TO THE EXACT
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AT ALL
SITES. BY MID MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NEARING
THE AREA IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION...PRE FRONTAL.
THIS WILL BRINGS CIGS DOWN SOME BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP. VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH VALID TIME
AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST BY MID MORNING WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1114 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091115-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1114 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL AND CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI...TO KARBERS RIDGE ILLINOIS...TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

ILZ075-080-081-084-088-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-081830-
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-UNION IL-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-
CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...JONESBORO...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD
1125 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...IS RAPIDLY MOVING
EAST AT ABOUT 45 MPH TOWARDS THE QUAD STATE REGION. RIPLEY...CARTER...WAYNE...BOLLINGER...PERRY...AND
CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IN SOUTH EAST MISSOURI...AND JACKSON...PERRY...FRANKLIN...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WIND SPEEDS OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS 1 INCH TO GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED WITH THESE STORMS...SO
PLEASE REMAIN INDOORS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STUCK BY LIGHTNING.