Severe Thunderstorm Warning 581, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT CONT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING THIS TIME ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN
TRANSLATING ESE. THINK GFS IS TOO FAR EAST AND MOST OF THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL PUT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
ALSO...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME OF THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER THE GFS
THINKS WILL BE OVER THE AREA MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED LOOK A
LITTLE COOL. SO WILL RAISE THEM A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE MAKING IT THROUGH AT LEAST BY AFTN AND IT IS NOW GETTING
TO BE LATE JULY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME NORTHWEST FLOW CONT... ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR WAVES
ARE EVIDENT UNTIL LARGER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND... WHICH BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
INITIALLY BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST LIMITING PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER POST-FRONTAL CHANCES MAY BE HIGHER. AS GFS
WOULD SUGGEST AND LATEST ECMWF NORTHWEST FLOW CONT INTO NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST PERIODICALLY AND NO
RETURN TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  65  90  64 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         95  68  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  97  70  91  68 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           88  61  90  63 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     85  63  89  63 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         92  67  90  68 /  40   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO... TO GUTHRIE... TO CHANDLER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...AND FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 5 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DISCRETE STORMS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... BEFORE ENDING LATER IN THE DAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

CJS/II

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