Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...TSTMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS KS IN VCNTY OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WILL ADJUST ORIENTATION OF THE POPS FOR
TONIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN NCNTRL OK. WILL ALSO TRIM POPS BACK IN
SWRN PARTS OF THE FA WHERE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WORK AGAINST
MORE SIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

AVIATION...DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THE BEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND TIMING. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOLLOWS
CLOSE TO THE NAM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET
TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDER NEAR A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OK FROM 1-4 UTC. MEANWHILE...SHARP UPPER FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED MCS OVER KANSAS...THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED
PASSAGE OF BOTH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT IN MOST TAFS.
THUNDER WILL BE MORE SPARSE AT WESTERN SITES...CAPPED BY +14 C AIR
AT 700 MB.

BURKE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL IN ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORMAN CWA. MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VEERED SO AM UNSURE HOW HIGH THE CHANCES
OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE. THE OTHER SIGNAL IS OF
STORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS SCENARIO. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEING BETWEEN COMPLEXES AND THEREFORE HAVE LOWER POPS ALONG THIS
AXIS... BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND THE ADDED SUPPORT
OF THE FRONT... WILL SEE HOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES
THIS EVENING AND ADJUST FROM THERE.

STORM COMPLEXES MAY STILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STORM COMPLEXES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT HAVE
ADDED LOW POPS SOUTHWEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE WE REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW. PREDICTABILITY OF
SPECIFIC WAVES ALWAYS PRESENT A CHALLENGE BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND. GFS DOES
NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES DEVELOP MORE QPF THAN THE GFS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  91  64  90 /  40  20   0   0
HOBART OK         71  94  66  90 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  96  68  88 /  30  30  20  20
GAGE OK           65  89  60  88 /  40  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  60  88 /  60  20   0   0
DURANT OK         70  91  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/22

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

OKZ007-210200-
GRANT OK-
813 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT COUNTY.

A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES NORTH OF WAKITA AT
811 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE
STORM WILL ENTER GRANT COUNTY AROUND 845 PM...BETWEEN MANCHESTER AND
RENFROW. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE IN GRANT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

BURKE