Severe Thunderstorm Warning 574, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.AVIATION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
NRN OK. ALTHOUGH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS NOT BEEN AS
EXPECTED...TIMING OF TSTMS LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD. WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING...CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPO CONDITIONS HAS
INCREASED. SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT OKC/OUN AND PNC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

.DISCUSSION...TSTMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS KS IN VCNTY OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WILL ADJUST ORIENTATION OF THE POPS FOR
TONIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN NCNTRL OK. WILL ALSO TRIM POPS BACK IN
SWRN PARTS OF THE FA WHERE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WORK AGAINST
MORE SIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

AVIATION...DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THE BEST MODEL SIGNAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND TIMING. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOLLOWS
CLOSE TO THE NAM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET
TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDER NEAR A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OK FROM 1-4 UTC. MEANWHILE...SHARP UPPER FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED MCS OVER KANSAS...THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED
PASSAGE OF BOTH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT IN MOST TAFS.
THUNDER WILL BE MORE SPARSE AT WESTERN SITES...CAPPED BY +14 C AIR
AT 700 MB.

BURKE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL IN ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORMAN CWA. MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BUT LOW LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS VEERED SO AM UNSURE HOW HIGH THE CHANCES
OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE. THE OTHER SIGNAL IS OF
STORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS OUT WEST FOR THIS SCENARIO. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEING BETWEEN COMPLEXES AND THEREFORE HAVE LOWER POPS ALONG THIS
AXIS... BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND THE ADDED SUPPORT
OF THE FRONT... WILL SEE HOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES
THIS EVENING AND ADJUST FROM THERE.

STORM COMPLEXES MAY STILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SOMEWHAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STORM COMPLEXES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT HAVE
ADDED LOW POPS SOUTHWEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE WE REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW. PREDICTABILITY OF
SPECIFIC WAVES ALWAYS PRESENT A CHALLENGE BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND. GFS DOES
NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES DEVELOP MORE QPF THAN THE GFS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  91  64  90 /  40  20   0   0
HOBART OK         71  94  66  90 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  96  68  88 /  30  30  20  20
GAGE OK           65  89  60  88 /  40  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  60  88 /  60  20   0   0
DURANT OK         70  91  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO... TO GUTHRIE... TO CHANDLER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...AND FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 5 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN
THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DISCRETE STORMS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY... MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... BEFORE ENDING LATER IN THE DAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

CJS/II

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW ALVA              36.71N 98.72W
07/20/2009  M71 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

&&

JBOWEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     HAIL             MENO                    36.39N 98.18W
07/20/2009  E1.75 INCH       MAJOR              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

OKZ008-210545-
KAY OK-
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KAY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF NARDIN AT 1159 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
WELLINGTON KANSAS...MOVING SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL OVERTAKE KAY
COUNTY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM.

HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

OKZ009-010-014-015-210545-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-ELLIS OK-
1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY...ELLIS...ROGER MILLS
AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
SHATTUCK TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MUTUAL AT 1202 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

BURKE