Severe Thunderstorm Warning 478, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.AVIATION...TSTMS MOVING OUT OF WEST TX BEGINNING TO APPROACH SWRN
TAF SITES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL TIME TSTMS IN TAF INTO
HBR/LAW/SPS EARLY THIS EVENING. LESS CONFIDENT IN TIMING AT MORE NLY
SITES AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL ALSO TREND
WITH SOME LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ESP TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN... FWD... AND AMA ALL INDICATING A
DECENT CAP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION THUS FAR. MEANWHILE... A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD HELP MAINTAIN/FOCUS CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE AGAIN VERY HIGH WITH MLCAPES RUNNING
4000-5000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL
QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ATTM... BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
STORMS INITIATE OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING OVER THE CAPROCK NEAR LUBBOCK. MODELS ARE
IN A REASONABLE AGREEMENT... INCLUDING SEVERAL RECENT LOCAL WRF
MODEL RUNS... IN FORMING STORMS AND THEN GROWING THEM UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

MEANWHILE... WE COULD ALSO SEE SECOND/THIRD MCSS DEVELOP OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO SE CO... WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BELIEVE THE TX/OK PANHANDLE ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER THE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITIES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY THAT HAS
PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS DRIED OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
REDUCED INSTABILITIES IN THAT AREA.

AFTER TONIGHT... WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN ON
MONDAY BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING CHANCES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA... SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT T-STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER... A FEW STORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENED BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  89  71  93 /  60  30  40  10
HOBART OK         71  94  70  97 /  60  20  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  94  73  98 /  60  20  30  10
GAGE OK           66  90  66  94 /  60  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  86  69  92 /  50  30  30  20
DURANT OK         75  93  73  92 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE...TO BINGER...TO SULPHUR TO MADILL AND INCLUDES ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...

SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFTOPS... AUTOMOBILES... AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN...WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SEVERAL SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.

II

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE BOMARTON          33.41N 99.40W
06/13/2009  M63 MPH          BAYLOR             TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            MILLER CREEK RESV RAWS STATION. TIME ESTIMATED

&&

DEW

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