Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS EAST OF A LINE FROM BENJAMIN TEXAS...TO CLINTON
OKLAHOMA...TO CHEROKEE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WILL BE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A
DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
ENHANCED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRYLINE COULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7
AM TUESDAY.

TAYLOR/II

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