Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND FRONTAL TIMING IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OK WITHIN WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  OTHER STORMS FORMED NEAR WARM FRONT IN
NC OK BUT HAVE LIFTED INTO KANSAS.  UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALLOW
STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK LATER THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED
THUNDER IN OKC/OUN/PNC TAFS (1-5Z).  WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH GAG/WWR
AROUND 6/7Z PER NAM. MODELS WANT TO STALL FRONTAL PROGRESS BUT
MAY SEE A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER
PUSH DURING THE DAY. FRONTAL TIMING FOR PNC WILL BE AROUND
13/14Z.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS EAST OF A LINE FROM BENJAMIN TEXAS...TO CLINTON
OKLAHOMA...TO CHEROKEE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.  STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WILL BE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A
DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
ENHANCED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRYLINE COULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7
AM TUESDAY.

TAYLOR/II

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

OKZ007-008-092315-
KAY OK-GRANT OK-
558 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF RENFROW AT 558 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE IN GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

OKZ036-TXZ083-085-092315-
JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-
605 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN...JACKSON AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OLUSTEE TO 7 MILES WEST OF MEDICINE MOUND AT 605 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW ALVA              36.71N 98.72W
03/09/2009  M60 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

OKZ022-035-036-100015-
WASHITA OK-JACKSON OK-KIOWA OK-
648 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JACKSON...KIOWA AND WASHITA
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOTEBO TO 3 MILES WEST OF HEADRICK AT 649 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

WR