Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 261021
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
521 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

ALC025-099-129-131-261030-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090326T1030Z/
WASHINGTON AL-MONROE AL-CLARKE AL-WILCOX AL-
521 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX...CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 520 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER
60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMDEN TO
PRESTWICK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMDEN TO 19 MILES EAST OF
CHATOM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TINELA...BELLVIEW...VREDENBURGH AND CHOCTAW BLUFF BY 530 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING 
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS 
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM.

LAT...LON 3205 8715 3133 8766 3133 8779 3131 8782
      3130 8829 3191 8767 3207 8747 3207 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 266DEG 33KT 3201 8727 3139 8793

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 26/06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A FLORALA TO WIGGINS LINE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY AND SOUTHERLY. /11

*************************PARTIAL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION************

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS.
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS AND
THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON MANY RIVERS LATE THIS
WEEK. WIDESPREAD BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES MAY CAUSE MANY AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS WEEK. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AT
LEAKESVILLE...THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT COFFEEVILLE AND AT LEROY. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BASED ON THE DAY TWO QPF VALUES. PLEASE SEE
BHMFLWMOB/BHMFLSMOB AND BHMRVSMOB FOR FURTHER DETAILS. /04

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHOULD
HELP THE RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 1 AM THIS
MORNING...MOBILE RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR STANDS AT 10.95 INCHES OR
5.57 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. PENSACOLA RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR STANDS AT
8.38 INCHES OR 6.71 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. /04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  72  61  77 /  80  80  80  70
PENSACOLA   64  72  63  77 /  70  80  80  70
DESTIN      63  72  63  74 /  60  70  70  60
EVERGREEN   61  74  60  77 /  90  80  80  70
WAYNESBORO  58  76  60  78 /  90  70  80  80
CAMDEN      59  74  61  78 /  90  80  80  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1147 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-270500-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1147 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER 4
AM.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING....ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...IN PARTICULAR PARTS OF
GREENE...WASHINGTON AND CLARKE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT.  A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONTINUING THE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED AREAS MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION
OF FORECAST HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED
LEVELS AND THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE...ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. A RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.