Flash Flood Warning 181, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

...CORRECT DURATION OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  FLASH FLOODING AREAS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN OUR SERVICE
AREA SINCE THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
OVER THE PERIOD THERE IS A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST UNDER THIS SLOW PATTERN.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON DAY 6/7.
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DROP A POLAR AIRMASS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH...HOWEVER THE 12Z RUN HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US.
EITHER WAY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BEYOND.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT
THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH THIS TAF SET. EXPECT BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z. ANOTHER BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR BY 00Z BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TEMPORARILY UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS. NE
WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 6-8 KTS.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  80  70  81 /  90  70  50  60
MKL  67  80  67  80 /  80  70  50  60
JBR  67  79  67  79 /  80  60  40  40
TUP  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  60  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
330 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDSOUTH. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE WATCH AREA
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
MIDSOUTH. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING THIS WEEK TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.

 BELLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
105 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 89.96W
09/16/2009                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS WERE FLOODED IN THE MIDTOWN SECTION OF
            MEMPHIS.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARMADUKE               36.19N 90.39W
09/16/2009                   GREENE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN MARMADUKE.

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W WALDENBURG          35.56N 91.01W
09/16/2009                   POINSETT           AR   POST OFFICE

            EXCESSIVE WATER ON HIGHWAY 14 WEST OF WALDENBURG.

1240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARMADUKE               36.19N 90.39W
09/16/2009                   GREENE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN MARMADUKE.

&&

CCD