Flash Flood Warning 176, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009/

UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A
LARGE BAND OF RAIN EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI PICKING UP ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
HOURS. WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX
REGION FOR 36 HOURS OR SO THERE WILL BE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND HAVE IT EXPIRE AT 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK MORE OF A EASTERLY TRACK
AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AWAY FROM EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO
DO NOT WANT TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH PAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NOW. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
AND WEAKEN SO THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BY THE WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WET WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (16/12Z-17/12Z)

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST AR ACROSS WEST TN
INTO NORTH MS THIS MORNING. BEST LOCATION FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE KTUP...WHERE MENTIONED TSRA IN A TEMPO
GROUP. MENTIONED SHOWERS BUT NO THUNDER AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...THINK CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AT ALL SITES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. FOR NOW...JUST PUT IN VCTS AT ALL
SITES SINCE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.
AFTER 17/04Z... IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING EXCEPT KJBR MAY REMAIN
MVFR WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  79  69  80  68 /  90  70  70  50
MKL  78  66  80  65 /  80  70  70  50
JBR  78  66  79  64 /  80  60  60  40
TUP  79  69  82  68 /  80  60  70  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
330 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDSOUTH. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE WATCH AREA
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH
PAST THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING THIS WEEK TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.13N 89.96W
09/16/2009                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS WERE FLOODED IN THE MIDTOWN SECTION OF
            MEMPHIS.

&&

ARS