Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF SHEAR HAS LED TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WAS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH MANY AREAS HAVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN RECENT
DAYS IN THAT SAME AREA...WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
INTO EARLY EVENING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN ALOFT BY THE START OF THE FIRST PERIOD...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. ALONG WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF MOST
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 PERCENT POP IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AFTER 00Z.

ON THURSDAY STRONG HEATING OF HIGH DEW POINT LOW LEVEL AIR MAY AGAIN
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND A BIT OF LIFT PROVIDED BY A POORLY DEFINED WARM FRONT STILL IN
THE AREA. FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH. WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT IF STORMS OCCUR.

MODELS DISAGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT FURTHER
NE...WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS POP GUIDANCE AND USE A 20
PERCENT POP.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY STAY
CAPPED. THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR MASS SHOULD YIELD SOME OF THE
HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH HIGHS TOPPING 90 IN MOST
PLACES.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

SHORT TERM CONCERNS PROHIBITED MUCH WORK ON LONG TERM PERIOD. A
GLANCE AT THE 17/12Z GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SUGGEST INHERITED FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE THOUGH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ON TRACK TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS WERE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT SLOWING DOWN
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT BOOST IN TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS DRY OR COOL AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND
TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY AROUND KJKL
SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...WITH CONDITIONS IFR AND WORSE. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE ANY LINGERING
STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058-
068-069-079-080-083>088-108>118-120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>088-107-109>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-181100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY
505 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

KYZ058-108-181100-
ESTILL-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...CAMPTON
505 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-109>118-120-181100-
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
HARLAN-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
505 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

KYZ107-119-181100-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAINTSVILLE...INEZ
505 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
535 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKHOLDS               36.83N 84.12W
06/17/2009                   WHITLEY            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 26 AND SIDE ROADS ARE UNDERWATER AND
            SOME ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
542 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WILLIAMSBURG            37.84N 83.19W
06/17/2009                   MORGAN             KY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS DOWNING TREES AND
            FLOWING OVER ROADS FROM WILLIAMSBURG NORTHWEST TO NEAR
            CUMBERLAND FALLS STATE PARK.

&&

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
622 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             CURT                    37.50N 83.39W
06/17/2009  E1.00 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL ON
            HIGHWAY 397 NEAR CURT.

&&

SCHOETTMER