Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Jackson, KY

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

PERSISTENT TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND EVEN A FEW FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. APPEARS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO
INTERACTION OF NEARLY NORTH...SOUTH SFC TROUGH...WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA...AND AN H850 LLJ MAX JUST ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH
SUNRISE AS MODELS SHOW THIS JET SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING A
BIT WITH TIME.

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO SHIFT
STUBBORN...ALMOST ENTRENCHED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MID WEST. DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT MODELS WANT
TO DO WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...AND THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MOVEMENT
ROUGHLY JUST NORTH AND ALONG RETURNING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ANY LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY AID IN ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH AMPLE MID TROPOSPHERIC VEERING FLOW AND
PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STORMS TO DRAW UPON IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS AGAIN PLACED EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. WILL ADDRESS ANY
CONCERNS IN THE HWO. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED WAY OFF ON POPS FOR
THURSDAY...BUT WAS HESITANT TO REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER WITH POTENTIAL
OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT FOR THURSDAY
PROPER. WENT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE...SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REALLY WARM UP. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWED SUIT.
ONLY DAMPER FOR TEMPS ON THURSDAY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD THAT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS DATA REGARDING TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION ONSET ON FRIDAY...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO
BE THE BEST TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
QUESTIONS WILL BE WHAT WILL BE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT TRIGGERS CONVECTION...THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
STORM MAINTENANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED PRETTY JET DYNAMICS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IN TODAYS MODELS WAS A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO ADJUSTED POP...SKY...AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO MODIFIED QPF GRIDS A BIT FOR THE SAME
REASON. ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON SATURDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY WILL ALL BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WARM MUGGY TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATEST HPC AND MEXMOS VALUES...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTREMELY WARM READINGS THE MEXMOS WAS DEPICTING FOR FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

CIGS AND VSBY HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA OVERNIGHT. THEN
THE SHRA END AND THE FOG DROPS VSBY INTO LIFR RANGE. THE VSBY
MODIFIES SLIGHTLY UNTIL THE NEXT SHRA AND THEN THE CYCLE REPEATS.
WILL BE FCSTNG BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL THE SHRA END. THEN BY DAWN
THE SHRA WILL RETURN IN EARNEST AND CHANGE TO TSRA AROUND NOON.
STATIONARY FNT IN THE CWFA WILL KEEP THE FOCUS ON PCPN UNTIL AFTER
18/00Z WHEN WE SHOULD SEE THE COLD FNT CLEAR OUT THE CURRENT WX
PATTERN AND EXPECT SOME DRY WX TO TAKE OVER. THAT MAY STILL INCLUDE
MORNING FOG IF WE CAN NOT GET ENUF DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED GROUND COMBINED WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AN ALREADY
WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HYDEN              37.14N 83.35W
06/17/2009                   LESLIE             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 80.

&&

ABE

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