Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER ALONG WITH VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES... IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG PER LAPS SOUNDINGS... MAKING THIS LOOK LIKE A POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE LACKING ANY CLEAR
TRIGGERING MECHANISM BUT WEAK H5 VORT SWINGING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE WIL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT. STILL UNCLEAR ABOUT HOW EVENT WILL EVOLVE... I.E. IF WE
WILL JUST HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION OR A MORE ORGANIZED MCS TYPE
EVENT. WHATEVER THE CASE... THE TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS IS A BIG WORRY AS FFG VALUES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND THE UPPER REACHES OF THE NORTH... MIDDLE
AND SOUTH FORK OF THE KENTUCKY BASINS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

PERSISTENT TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND EVEN A FEW FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. APPEARS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO
INTERACTION OF NEARLY NORTH...SOUTH SFC TROUGH...WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA...AND AN H850 LLJ MAX JUST ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH
SUNRISE AS MODELS SHOW THIS JET SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING A
BIT WITH TIME.

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVENTUALLY HELPING TO SHIFT
STUBBORN...ALMOST ENTRENCHED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MID WEST. DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT MODELS WANT
TO DO WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...AND THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MOVEMENT
ROUGHLY JUST NORTH AND ALONG RETURNING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ANY LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY AID IN ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH AMPLE MID TROPOSPHERIC VEERING FLOW AND
PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STORMS TO DRAW UPON IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS AGAIN PLACED EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. WILL ADDRESS ANY
CONCERNS IN THE HWO. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED WAY OFF ON POPS FOR
THURSDAY...BUT WAS HESITANT TO REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER WITH POTENTIAL
OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT FOR THURSDAY
PROPER. WENT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE...SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REALLY WARM UP. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWED SUIT.
ONLY DAMPER FOR TEMPS ON THURSDAY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD THAT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS DATA REGARDING TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION ONSET ON FRIDAY...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO
BE THE BEST TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
QUESTIONS WILL BE WHAT WILL BE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT TRIGGERS CONVECTION...THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
STORM MAINTENANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED PRETTY JET DYNAMICS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IN TODAYS MODELS WAS A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO ADJUSTED POP...SKY...AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO MODIFIED QPF GRIDS A BIT FOR THE SAME
REASON. ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON SATURDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY WILL ALL BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WARM MUGGY TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATEST HPC AND MEXMOS VALUES...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTREMELY WARM READINGS THE MEXMOS WAS DEPICTING FOR FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY AROUND KJKL
SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...WITH CONDITIONS IFR AND WORSE. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE ANY LINGERING
STORMS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ058-
068-069-079-080-083>088-108>118-120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>088-107-109>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY/HAL/ABE
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED GROUND COMBINED WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AN ALREADY
WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HYDEN              37.14N 83.35W
06/17/2009                   LESLIE             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 80.

&&

ABE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1223 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCROBERTS               37.21N 82.67W
06/17/2009                   LETCHER            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE ON HWY 343 WASHED OUT. ALSO HOMES ON YONTS FORK
            ROAD GETTING WATER IN THEM.

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE FLEMING-NEON       37.21N 82.68W
06/17/2009                   LETCHER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS HWY 317 AT THE
            GOOSE CREEK ROAD INTERSECTION.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLEMING-NEON            37.19N 82.70W
06/17/2009                   LETCHER            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAIN STREET FLOODED AND ROADS IN NEON IMPASSIBLE. STATE
            AND COUNTY CANNOT MOVE EQUIPMENT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
            FLOODING.

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DORTON                  37.28N 82.58W
06/17/2009                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS ARE INACCESSIBLE ON 3 MILE CREEK, BLAZE BRANCH,
            CABLE HOLLOW, AND HWY 805, IN THE DORTON AREA.

&&

DSTAMPER