River Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

STRONG MCV MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE MOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON KICKING OFF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KY.
LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ROLL THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN ABOUT 4 AND 6 PM LOCAL. WITH SUCH STRONG ROTATION
NOT SURPRISED TO HEAR REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS
UPSTREAM. BASED ON THE RUC...WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON EVENTS
TODAY...EXPECT THIS MCV TO RIDE STRAIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WILL
SEE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MOVED VALID TIME OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UP TO 4 PM TO CORRESPOND WITH ARRIVAL OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
HALF INCH OF RAIN TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MANY PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EXPECT AERIAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA
RIVERS WILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

EXTENDED MODELS INITIALLY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE
PATTERN BUT DIFFER A BIT ON SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MAINLY TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND
TAKES THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS FCST TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. VERY WEAK WAVE TO PUSH PCPN BACK INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES EARLY
MON BUT QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. WED
MORNING IS WHERE THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF THE
FASTER MODEL BY ALMOST 12 HRS. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AS HIGH PRESS
TENDS TO BE RELUCTANT TO BE DISPLACED AND THE ECWMF TRACKS THE HIGH
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WERE THE GFS TAKES THE HIGH TO THE
CLIMATALOGICALY FAVORED MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
GFS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO
ERN KY WED NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA TO PRECEDE AND LAST INTO THU BEFORE
PASSING THRU THE AREA. QPF WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
NORMAL FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND SHOULD NOT BE A AREAL AVG HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH TYPICAL TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MARCHING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE ABOUT 20Z...1600 LOCAL...AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
THERE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING TO MID DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IFR IN THE VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED RAIN...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116-
091100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-WOLFE-LEE-
OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...MANCHESTER
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

KYZ088-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120-091100-
HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
HAZARD...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1059 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
05/08/2009                   BREATHITT          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            100 PEOPLE REPORTED TO BE WITHOUT POWER.

&&

DSTAMPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYZ083-082000-
WAYNE-
333 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 331 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CABELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PARNELL AROUND 340 PM EDT...MONTICELLO AROUND
345 PM EDT...STEUBENVILLE AROUND 350 PM EDT...MILL SPRINGS AROUND 355
PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
432 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             PINE KNOT               36.66N 84.44W
05/08/2009  E1.25 INCH       MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL, 60 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED, 1/2 WATER
            RUNNING ACROSS ROADS.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             PINE KNOT               36.66N 84.44W
05/08/2009  E2.00 INCH       MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             PINE KNOT               36.66N 84.44W
05/08/2009  E1.75 INCH       MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

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