Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, KY

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED
THE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MCS IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SYSTEM AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF TO COME
UP WITH THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTREME AMOUNT OF
QPF FOR TONIGHT. WHEN I LOOKED AT THE GFS TIME HEIGHT FOR
TONIGHT...IT DOES NOT EVEN A COUPLING OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS. FURTHERMORE...THEN GFS MOS IS ONLY GOING FOR 60 TO 70
PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERING BOTH THOSE FACTS...I JUST DO
NOT BELIEVE THE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS AND HAVE BLENDED THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND HPC QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE FORECAST. AFTER A GOOD
ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND ROUND TONIGHT AND
CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT SOIL AND STREAM CONDITIONS...THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODS IS A REAL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. FOR TEMPS
WENT A BIT LOWER THAN THE NAM MOS.

WITH ALL OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL QUITE A BIT UP IN THE AIR. WE WILL
MOST LIKELY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALSO
KNOW HOW MUCH WILL FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY TO PRIME THE PUMP.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

QUESTIONS IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN FOR HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE MONDAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS HIGHER CHANCE POPS SEEM MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN
CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN TAKE HOLD.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY AND
COMBINES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
DRY...AND FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ONLY A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO CONTEND WITH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...BUT LEANED CLOSER TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE WHICH PREFERRED
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAD SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OTHER
EXTENDED MODELS...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE RUNS. GENERALLY TWEAKED TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD TOWARDS LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE REQUIRED. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST WAS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY BE
A CATALYST FOR A VERY CHILLY MORNING. WENT WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN
OUR TYPICALLY COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

THE TAFS ARE A MIXED BAG BECAUSE OF THE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MY
CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO NAIL THIS DOWN IS PRETTY LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
QUITE A BIT A VARIABILITY IN THE CIGS AND VIS AT TAF STATIONS BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AFTER 10Z AND THEN ANOTHER
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 2Z. THIS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME TEMPO IFR VICINITY OF THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY/SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...JJ

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