Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 090133
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYC025-051-065-109-125-129-131-165-173-175-189-193-197-203-237-
090230-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090509T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-
LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-PERRY KY-
CLAY KY-LAUREL KY-LESLIE KY-
933 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LESLIE...EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL...NORTH
CENTRAL CLAY...WEST CENTRAL PERRY...NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...
JACKSON...WESTERN BREATHITT...LEE...ESTILL...WOLFE...POWELL...SOUTH
CENTRAL MENIFEE...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE PARTICULARLY BEEN HIT HARD INCLUDE 
BOONEVILLE...CRESSMONT...BEATTYVILLE...AND IRVINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8446 3748 8438 3754 8436 3753 8421
      3756 8419 3757 8411 3765 8414 3767 8411
      3780 8409 3781 8413 3785 8402 3794 8399
      3786 8363 3785 8344 3729 8347 3731 8432
      3734 8444 3741 8447 3736 8448

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

STRONG MCV MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE MOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON KICKING OFF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KY.
LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ROLL THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN ABOUT 4 AND 6 PM LOCAL. WITH SUCH STRONG ROTATION
NOT SURPRISED TO HEAR REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS
UPSTREAM. BASED ON THE RUC...WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON EVENTS
TODAY...EXPECT THIS MCV TO RIDE STRAIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WILL
SEE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MOVED VALID TIME OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UP TO 4 PM TO CORRESPOND WITH ARRIVAL OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
HALF INCH OF RAIN TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MANY PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EXPECT AERIAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA
RIVERS WILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

EXTENDED MODELS INITIALLY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE
PATTERN BUT DIFFER A BIT ON SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MAINLY TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND
TAKES THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS FCST TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. VERY WEAK WAVE TO PUSH PCPN BACK INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES EARLY
MON BUT QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. WED
MORNING IS WHERE THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF THE
FASTER MODEL BY ALMOST 12 HRS. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AS HIGH PRESS
TENDS TO BE RELUCTANT TO BE DISPLACED AND THE ECWMF TRACKS THE HIGH
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WERE THE GFS TAKES THE HIGH TO THE
CLIMATALOGICALY FAVORED MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
GFS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO
ERN KY WED NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA TO PRECEDE AND LAST INTO THU BEFORE
PASSING THRU THE AREA. QPF WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
NORMAL FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND SHOULD NOT BE A AREAL AVG HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH TYPICAL TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MARCHING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE ABOUT 20Z...1600 LOCAL...AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
THERE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING TO MID DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IFR IN THE VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EXPECTED RAIN...WENT WITH A
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116-
091100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-WOLFE-LEE-
OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...MANCHESTER
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

KYZ088-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120-091100-
HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
HAZARD...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
524 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             HOLLYHILL               36.66N 84.33W
05/08/2009  E2.00 INCH       MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LASTED OVER 10 MINUTES

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
554 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
05/08/2009                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE POLICE REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD 2 MILES WEST OF MILE
            MARKER 62 ON INTERSTATE 75

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N HYDEN               37.22N 83.37W
05/08/2009                   LESLIE             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
630 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E SALYERSVILLE        37.75N 82.97W
05/08/2009                   MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 1888 BLOCKING BOTH SIDES OF THE HIGHWAY.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
05/08/2009                   MAGOFFIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON RTE 867 AND 1090 NEAR SALYERSVILLE.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             ISLAND CITY             37.37N 83.77W
05/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       OWSLEY             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DSTAMPER