Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...MARCH COMES ROARING IN LIKE A LION...

.SHORT TERM...COLD UPPER LOW IS DIVING SEWD OVER MS AS BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH DIVES TOWARD GULF COAST. SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS
PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER S/CENTRL GA
TO JUST W OF TLH. ANALYSIS PLACES A THETA E RIDGE FROM BIG BEND
THRU SUWANNEE VALLEY TO BRUNSWICK. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES MOST STORMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE.
HOWEVER THE COLD UPR LOW IS APPROACHING AND STRONG WIND SHEAR
PERSISTS ON VAD WIND PROFILES. TOR WATCH WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THRU THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING
AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS CLOUD TOPS COOL WITH
APPROACHING UPR LOW. HEATING OVER SE PORTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOS AND EXPECT A FLAREUP THERE ALSO. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH SHARP PRESSURE RISES AND WIND ADV IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL AREAS. WILL PROBABLY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTN...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE END OF THE PRECIP. THICKNESS VALUES PLUMMET AND MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST CHANGEOVER TO SN POSSIBLE ACRS THE NRN TIER AS THE UPR LOW
PASSES. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS THINKING THAT TEMPS ARE TOO WARM
DURING DAY AND WILL KEEP RAIN THRU 03Z WITH POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA LATER IN EVENING.

TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE CUT-OFF LOW RACES NEWD PROVIDING MAJOR
SNOWSTORM FOR THE NORTHEAST. SHARP UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER ERN
SEABOARD FUNNELING COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO LOCAL AREA. FREEZES ARE
LIKELY INLAND NEXT 3 NIGHTS WITH MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORN THE
COLDEST AS IT WILL BE BORDERLINE HARD FREEZE FOR SUWANNEE VALLEY.
MONDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH NW WINDS 15-20 MPH AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF AREA TUESDAY AFTN SHIFTING
WINDS TO NELY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S COAST TO LOW 60S SE
PORTION.

.LONG TERM...SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH MAJOR WARMUP
THURS-SAT AS SFC HIGH SETTLES EAST OF AREA AND BROAD UPR RIDGE
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
BOOST TO TEMPS. RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR THIS MORNING BECOMING IFR
IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT WILL RETURN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS AFTER
00Z BRING BACK MVFR CIGS...EXCEPT FOR GNV WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY MID-MORNING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND INCLUDED NEAR
SHORE ZONES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS START TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE...COLD AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
CRITICALLY LOW RHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED WATCHES
FOR NE FL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  31  53  27 /  60  30   0   0
SSI  54  34  52  33 /  80  20   0   0
JAX  55  32  54  32 /  80  10   0   0
SGJ  59  35  55  35 /  70  10   0   0
GNV  56  31  58  28 /  80  10   0   0
OCF  59  32  59  30 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

TRABERT/ZIBURA/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
309 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH 44 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
10 AM FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EXCEPT
FOR COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES.

PLEASE MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS. FURTHER DETAILS ARE IN THE URGENT
WEATHER MESSAGE AND THE URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA LATE TODAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF DOUGLAS TO ALMA
AND JESUP THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS UNDER THE TORNADO
WATCH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
302 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

GAZ150-162>164-010845-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-ECHOLS-WARE-
302 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CHARLTON...CENTRAL CLINCH...CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHWESTERN ECHOLS
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 AM EST...

AT 302 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYDAY...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF STATENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND STATENVILLE...MAYDAY...DU
PONT...HOMERVILLE...ARGYLE...MANOR AND NEEDHAM THROUGH 345 AM EST.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3085 8308 3087 8298 3098 8298 3125 8243
      3098 8229 3068 8305 3080 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 241DEG 40KT 3083 8298

PETERSON

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