Red Flag Warning 34, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TONIGHT...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TONIGHT...
...HARD FREEZE WATCH INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...SQUALL LINE HAS LONG SINCE DEPARTED THE AREA TO THE
EAST WITH VERY LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE
SECONDARY FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
REPORTED OVER 40 MPH...VERIFYING CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NICELY.
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BACKSIDE NORTHWEST FLOW WRAP
AROUND REMAINING A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...RUC INDICATES VIGOROUS UPPER LOW HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTH
GA WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW POSITIONED JUST AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AT OVER 100 KTS.

INITIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON AFOREMENTIONED WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MY GA COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z.
EXPECTING PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH 00Z AS THICKNESSES
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP BUT LOWEST 2M REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
BUT LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 00Z...WITH SURFACE TEMPS FALLING...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES
BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING. THIS IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND
CURRENT GRID FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD AIR WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
AND ELEVATED WINDS...BLENDING IN THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE STILL
YIELDS VALUES AROUND 30 FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
SINCE THE FREEZE PROGRAM HAS RESUMED AS OF 3/1...WILL HOIST A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL INLAND AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
AIR...WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IF NOT WINDY WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COMING UP WITH LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PORTION.

CONTINUED LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A RAW EARLY MARCH DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR OUR NEXT FREEZE EVENT WHICH LOOKS A BIT MORE CERTAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES A HARD
FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS BUT WILL STAY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO CONTINUED WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL...COLD AIR APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A HARD FREEZE
WATCH FOR INLAND PORTIONS AND A FREEZE WATCH ALONG THE COAST.

AFTER ONE ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY WRT DAYTIME HIGHS. WX WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...PENCIL SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS KEEPING
STORM SYSTEMS NORTH OF THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO
CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY OVER
FL PANHANDLE AND SE GA. ANTICIPATE CIGS IN MVFR RANGE WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND GUSTING TO 35 KT AND SEAS
UPWARDS OF 9 FT CURRENTLY. GALE WARNING WILL CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CONCERN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES
DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME AREAS OF NE FL. LOW RH AND
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MEET RED FLAGS IN NE FL ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY
WINDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT. UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR MON.
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH ARE EXPECTED ON TUE BUT A DEVELOPING NE
FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  30  53  26  57 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  34  52  32  53 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  33  55  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  37  55  33  56 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  31  58  29  60 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  32  59  29  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-PUTNAM-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

DEESE/SHASHY/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
225 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
...FREEZE WARNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND AREAS...
...HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT

WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER DETAILS ARE IN THE URGENT
WEATHER MESSAGE AND THE URGENT MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZE WARNINGS AND
WIND CHILL ADVISRIES HAVE BEEN POSTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
URGENT WEATHER MESSAGES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COLD AIR RUSHING IN THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FLURRIES TO MIX WITH THE RAIN BEFORE
ENDING AS PREDOMINANT FLURRY ACTIVITY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON AREA ROADS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
GRASSY SURFACES TO RECEIVE A DUSTING LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE MONITOR
OUR WEBPAGE FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES TO THIS WINTER WEATHER FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER FREEZE EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE FROM THIS MORNING
STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/ARS/JTD

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