Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE AND DIGGING UPPER SHORT
WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST HAS PRODUCED SEVERE STORMS(LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES) OVER AL AND NORTH GA THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDING AT JAX
SHOWS HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR BUT CAP STILL EVIDENT AT 700 MB.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN COOLING
ALOFT ERODES CAP ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OVER SE GA/NE FL BUT
DYNAMICS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
50 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY GOING OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HOVERING NEAR MVFR CRITERIA AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AT KSSI AROUND 06Z...
FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS AFTER 08Z. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING ARRIVAL OF
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FAVORABLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
WILL EXTEND LLWS THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING THURSDAY WITH 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS CONFIDENCE OF SUSTAINED GALES
REMAINS QUITE LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGEST WINDS PRECEDING
ARRIVAL OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST THURSDAY.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUVAL-NASSAU.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

ZIBURA/ZAPPE/KEEGAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
849 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

GAZ149-150-190215-
ATKINSON-WARE-
849 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ATKINSON
AND NORTHWESTERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 915 PM
EST...

AT 849 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTH OF AXSON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND MILLWOOD...AXSON...BICKLEY AND DIXIE UNION THROUGH 915
PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3137 8263 3141 8263 3145 8249 3144 8247
      3142 8248 3142 8242 3141 8240 3139 8242
      3136 8238 3129 8238 3122 8274 3137 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 264DEG 50KT 3131 8266

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

GAZ151-190230-
PIERCE-
901 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PIERCE COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 930 PM EST...

AT 901 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 19 MILES WEST OF BLACKSHEAR...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BRISTOL...BLACKSHEAR AND PATTERSON THROUGH
930 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3148 8216 3148 8209 3146 8205 3136 8204
      3132 8200 3126 8234 3130 8238 3136 8238
      3139 8242 3141 8240 3142 8242 3144 8240
      3144 8233 3153 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 257DEG 47KT 3134 8244

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ132-149-162-163-190700-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-
1257 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN CLINCH...
ATKINSON...ECHOLS AND SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 200 AM EST...

AT 1257 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WILLACOOCHEE...DOUGLAS...PEARSON...COGDELL AND AXSON THROUGH
200 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THESE STORMS. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3087 8296 3120 8296 3119 8304 3154 8306
      3155 8270 3061 8272 3063 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 262DEG 55KT 3131 8291

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ150-190715-
WARE-
122 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WARE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 215 AM EST...

AT 122 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLWOOD...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAKELAND...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MILLWOOD...MANOR...
WARESBORO AND NEEDHAM THROUGH 215 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3127 8240 3097 8242 3097 8252 3102 8259
      3124 8269 3128 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 262DEG 59KT 3116 8284

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
144 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ150>152-164-190730-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-PIERCE-WARE-
144 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CHARLTON...WESTERN BRANTLEY...CENTRAL WARE AND SOUTHERN PIERCE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 230 AM EST...

AT 144 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEEDHAM...OR 8 MILES EAST
OF ARGYLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDHAM...WAYCROSS...SUNNYSIDE...DEENWOOD...
RACE POND...HOBOKEN...WINOKUR...RAYBON...NAHUNTA AND HICKOX THROUGH
230 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3109 8191 3105 8192 3104 8191 3094 8191
      3090 8243 3125 8244 3128 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 264DEG 55KT 3110 8242

ZIBURA