Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 30 FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL AND ALL OF SE GA THROUGH
9 AM...

.SHORT TERM...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT OVER GA AND NRN FL MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ANTICIPATE LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIND
SHEAR OF 60-70 KT AND MUCAPE OF 500-1000J IS SUSTAINING THIS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH PVA FROM DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN U.S. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
DOWN STATE. STRONG LLVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF
30-40 KT AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTS WINDS TO 30 MPH SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NWLY FLOW IN THE 10-15 MPH AND
DECREASING OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED BUT WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIDAY...COOL AND SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE W. MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AREAS FROST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL MINS AOB FREEZING ARE
LIKELY. THUS WILL RAISE A FREEZE WATCH SAT MORNING. IN A FEW
WELL INLAND LOCATIONS MAY GET IN THE MID 20S IF CLOUDS DON'T
HINDER COOL RATE. SAT...AFTER A COLD START THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD WITH A RETURN SETTING UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EXPECTED ATTM.

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT...GFS MODEL SHOWS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NRN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE NAM INDICATES IT
OVER AL AND FL PANHANDLE BUT PREFER THE GFS. POPS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT POPS WRN ZONES AND SUN
INCREASE TO CHANCE OVER FL ZONES AND 20-30% IN SE GA WHERE LIFT IS
WEAKER. MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS WELL N AND NE OF THE
AREA PRODUCING MODERATE NELY FLOW (BREEZY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
MON&TUE) AND A THREAT OF A COASTAL SHOWER BUT HAVE LARGELY KEPT AREA
PRECIP-FREE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EWD ON WED WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE ONGOING LLWS AND MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST OF STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SSI BETWEEN 09Z-12Z...JAX AND CRG BETWEEN
10Z-13Z...AND GNV BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. AREA REMAINS IN A TORNADO WATCH
TIL 9 AM. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY FROM HEAVY RAIN AND HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AREA
THIS MORNING AND BE NEAR A JAX TO NORTH OF GNV LINE AT 12Z AND
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CONDITIONS VFR BY 15Z
AT JAX...CRG...SSI AND AT GNV BY 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WHEN MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS REMAINS IN A TORNADO
WATCH TIL 9 AM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR SHORE BUT WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BRINGING WINDY AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
MPH. THIS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG THIS
AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  31  57  26 /  30   0   0   0
SSI  69  35  50  34 /  70   0   0   0
JAX  72  34  56  28 /  70   0   0   0
SGJ  71  38  53  34 /  70   0   0   0
GNV  73  34  58  27 /  70   0   0   0
OCF  73  37  59  28 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUVAL-
     NASSAU.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-DUVAL-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200015-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
215 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 30 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS AND INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLVING
SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHOULD STILL PRODUCE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING AND A HARD FREEZE
ON SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ150-190715-
WARE-
122 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WARE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 215 AM EST...

AT 122 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLWOOD...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAKELAND...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MILLWOOD...MANOR...
WARESBORO AND NEEDHAM THROUGH 215 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3127 8240 3097 8242 3097 8252 3102 8259
      3124 8269 3128 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 262DEG 59KT 3116 8284

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
144 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ150>152-164-190730-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-PIERCE-WARE-
144 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CHARLTON...WESTERN BRANTLEY...CENTRAL WARE AND SOUTHERN PIERCE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 230 AM EST...

AT 144 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEEDHAM...OR 8 MILES EAST
OF ARGYLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDHAM...WAYCROSS...SUNNYSIDE...DEENWOOD...
RACE POND...HOBOKEN...WINOKUR...RAYBON...NAHUNTA AND HICKOX THROUGH
230 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3109 8191 3105 8192 3104 8191 3094 8191
      3090 8243 3125 8244 3128 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 264DEG 55KT 3110 8242

ZIBURA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ150-152-153-164-165-190915-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WARE-
326 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
CHARLTON...BRANTLEY...EASTERN WARE...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND WESTERN
GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 415 AM
EST...

AT 326 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 14 MILES WEST OF RACE POND...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF WAYCROSS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RACE POND...HOBOKEN...WINOKUR...HICKOX...
RAYBON...NAHUNTA...TARBORO...ATKINSON...WAYNESVILLE AND WAVERLY
THROUGH 415 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3097 8236 3114 8239 3121 8220 3121 8218
      3123 8215 3136 8178 3135 8175 3100 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 261DEG 40KT 3107 8226

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

GAZ132-134-149>151-190900-
ATKINSON-BACON-COFFEE-PIERCE-WARE-
335 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN WARE...NORTHWESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN
COFFEE AND SOUTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
VALID UNTIL 400 AM EST...

AT 335 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER PEARSON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PEARSON...AXSON...
MILLWOOD...BICKLEY AND DIXIE UNION THROUGH 400 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3152 8229 3130 8224 3123 8287 3140 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 259DEG 41KT 3133 8279

HESS