River Flood Warning 19, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...

...DISCUSSION...FIRST OFF THIS AFTERNOON...IM GOING TO GO AHEAD AND
REMOVE SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE...AND JONES COUNTIES FROM TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 38 AS A RESULT OF DECREASED ACTIVITY DUE TO A STRONG
CAPPING OVER THE AREA.  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 38 HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR.

THE COLD FRONT THATS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TODAYS
ACTIVITY HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A
RESULT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  SOME ACTIVITY HAS TRIED TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...BUT DUE TO THE CAPPING OVER
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA...NOTED ON THE 18Z KJAN RAOB...THINGS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING FURTHER SOUTH TO THIS POINT.

FOR TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FAVORABLE
POSITION IN THE UPPER UPPER JET...THATS AIDED IN CONVECTION EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...MY FEELING IS THAT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH
INCREASED FORCING AS THE LARGER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO THE REGION
CAUSING THE NOW NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT TO BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE AREA...WE COULD STILL SEE AT MINIMUM SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY BASICALLY
CONGEALS INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  LAPSE
RATES ARENT EXPECTED TO BE AS STEEP AS THEY HAD BEEN...BUT AGAIN
WITH GOOD FORCING AND INSTABILITY...AND WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
REMAINING ADEQUATE ENOUGH...IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO MACON THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN WINONA AND COLUMBUS.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.  UNTIL THE FRONT ACTUALLY
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH...LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED...TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD...FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.  AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THINKING THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
BEHIND IT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PULLING
AWAY FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW POTENT STORMS NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK AND BEFORE 10 AM. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
HIGH...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...SO
THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE REST OF THE SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS (AT LEAST IN UPPER DELTA SECTIONS) MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT I WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT
HANDLE THAT. TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO DROP DURING THE DAY IN A FEW
PLACES WITH VERY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE REALLY INTERESTING WEATHER WILL COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW COMES PLOWING
SOUTH IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODELS HAVE REACHED A GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DIG STRONGLY DOWN INTO OUR REGION...BUT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST. THIS PUTS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CLEVELAND TO DE KALB LINE IN MISSISSIPPI IN THE ZONE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. SOME LIGHT SNOW (PERHAPS MIXED WITH
RAIN AT TIMES) MAY FALL SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE UP IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAYBE AN
INCH TO A DUSTING ELSEWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA OF THE CWA SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL (AND STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK) I WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
SORT OF WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO STRONGLY CONSIDER THIS IN AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE ARKLAMISS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND I HAVE POSTED
THE RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW. /BB/

BEGINNING SUNDAY THE AREA WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND THURSDAY OR SO. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK CAA PERSISTING THROUGH THIS
TIME.  THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 50S OR
LOWER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE AREA SHOULD
SEE A DECENT WARM UP.  THERE WILL BE A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION.  AND THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW TO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION TO GIVE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND INTO THE MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED. HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MOST SITES FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
ENSEMBLE GUI VALUES. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
AS IF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
LONGER INTO THE WEEKEND./14/

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRYING TO TIME THE CONVECTION
TODAY AND THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS
A LARGE WINDOW OF TIME WILL EXIST WHERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
SITES ALONG AND N OF I-20. THE WORST OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR FLYING
THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FROM GLH TO GTR. VIS MAY FALL BELOW TO
AOB 1SM IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. AWAY FROM STORM ACTIVITY...VFR TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST SITES.  COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE.  SITES GLH AND GWO WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST
TO THE FRONT. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE TIME
UNTIL SUNDAY WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NE HALF OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT.  ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUN AFTERNOON. /DH/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  52  30  49 / 100  35  23   2
MERIDIAN      56  57  30  48 /  91  51  41  13
VICKSBURG     51  52  31  50 / 100  23  15   0
HATTIESBURG   60  64  34  54 /  80  55  17   1
NATCHEZ       53  54  32  53 /  90  27   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  44  30  48 / 100  28  32   1
GREENWOOD     46  45  29  47 / 100  37  45  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/BB/DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

MSZ018-019-025>039-282145-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
342 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND
OTHER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...BETWEEN
QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZE. OTHER RISKS WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT
OCCUR.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...THE ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL
LINE IN WHICH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DUE TO THE REPETITIVE
NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREA...SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS
PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO MACON LOOK TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CLEVELAND TO DEKALB LINE.
AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW AN
INCH. AS RESULT...A WINTER WEATHER WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ040>052-282145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
342 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOS WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT OCCUR.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...THE ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL
LINE IN WHICH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-282145-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
342 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IF ONE CAN DEVELOP...IT
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             2 N CLEVELAND           33.77N 90.73W
02/27/2009  E0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
02/27/2009                   BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STREET FLOODING IN CLEVELAND WITH SEVERAL ROADS
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     HAIL             PACE                    33.79N 90.86W
02/27/2009  E0.88 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S PHEBA               33.57N 88.95W
02/27/2009                   CLAY               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ON HIGHWAY 389 SOUTH OF PHEBA HEADING TOWARDS
            STARKVILLE. WATER ON CAMP SEMINAR ROAD ALSO.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             3 S EUPORA              33.50N 89.28W
02/27/2009  E0.50 INCH       CHOCTAW            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF EUPORA.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
740 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW BELLEFONTAINE     33.64N 89.34W
02/27/2009                   WEBSTER            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 26.

&&

JALLEN