Flood Watch 2, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1134 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...STORMY AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS
WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST UPDATED TO ADD TORNADO WATCH FOR ECNTRL LA
ZONES TIL 4 AM. LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LA IS INTENSIFYING IN
BETTER INSTABILITY TO WEST OF FORECAST AREA. MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THAT REGION BUT REMAIN AT 63
DEGREES AT HEZ/TVR. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS FAR EAST BUT
SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY CHANCE THAT BAND WILL WEAKEN IN MORE STABLE AIR
MASS AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009/

.SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
SHREVEPORT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND AFFECT SE ARKANSAS...NE LOUISIANA
AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW
A SMALL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TONIGHT AS THE STORMS SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO
FAVORABLE SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL SETTLE TO ROUGHLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHILE DRIER AIR BRIEFLY
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A
SECOND IMPULSE WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK.
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
APPROACHES AND IS PRECEDED BY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS...EXPECT
ANOTHER QUICK RECOVERY PERIOD AND A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO
UNFOLD FROM FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WITH ITS PORTRAYAL OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE > 2500
J/KG...THEN WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THE
BEARISH ECMWF BRINGS MID 60 DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTN. EXPECT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR WITH STORMS
EVOLVING EASTWARD. AS PRIMARY FORCING APPROACHES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE IS EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A SQUALL LINE OVER
ERN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AS THE MAJOR TROUGH DEPARTS
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD DAYS AND
CHILLY NIGHTS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MEX MOS CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL STORM TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GREATER AMOUNTS. AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 ARE SUFFICIENTLY WET TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG RIVERS
AND TO AREAS WHICH REGULARLY FLOOD DURING HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME MINOR
TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THOSE RIVERS
NORTH OF I-20. THOSE LIVING ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE BIG BLACK
RIVER BASIN SHOULD PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION FOR MODERATE FLOODING SINCE
THE RIVER IS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

MP

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASING IFR DECKS TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
/15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/03

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>