Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...LONG DURATION SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKELY TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE E/SE
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT/MOD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. THERE DOES EXIST A SMALL CHANCE OF THE
STORMS ALONG THE LINE TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN BRIEFLY SVR AS LIMITED
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE...TEMPS ARE COOLER WITH DEWPT IN THE 50S. I HAVE ADJ
THE CURRENT FORECAST TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE THUNDER WORDING TODAY AND
ONLY KEEP ISOLATED TSRA WORDING FOR THE S HALF OF THE AREA. I ALSO
ADJ TEMPS SOME TO ACCOUNT OF LATEST TRENDS. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE
NEED BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER POPS.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WE ARE BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WX PERIODS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SVR WX
AND WHERE IT WILL HAPPEN HIGHLY DEPENDS ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION AND
HOW THE CURRENT BOUNDARY EVOLVES AND HOW FAR NORTH IT CAN GET.
CURRENTLY...THIS BOUNDARY IS SHALLOW...BUT HAS MOVED FURTHER S THAN
MODELS HAD INDICATED. WITH CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER THE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT
EVOLVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MORE POTENT
DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY. MY GUESS IS THAT IT WILL RETREAT N...BUT
NOT MAKE IT AS FAR AS PREV GUID SUGGESTED. THE RESULT WOULD BE A
GREATER SVR WX RISK FURTHER S ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AT
THIS TIME...GREATEST SVR RISK OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO BE THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO BE RIGHT TROUGH THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITHIN A TWO CO BUFFER EITHER SIDE OF I-20. 1-3 INCHES SEEM
REASONABLE...LOCALIZED HIGHER POSSIBLE. MORE DETAIL ON WHAT TYPE OF
SVR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH THOUGHTS ON THE OTHER EVENTS.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  57  78  64 /  84  98  31  80
MERIDIAN      71  57  77  63 / 100  99  37  80
VICKSBURG     69  58  80  66 /  81  94  29  79
HATTIESBURG   74  64  78  65 /  99  88  58  89
NATCHEZ       72  60  79  66 /  81  97  39  90
GREENVILLE    66  55  77  62 /  38  89  16  72
GREENWOOD     67  54  76  65 /  65  90  13  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>056-059-060.

LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MERIDIAN          32.33N 88.68W
03/25/2009                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON A CHURCH AND ON A SWIMMING POOL

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

MSZ066-074-251655-
JONES MS-FORREST MS-
1148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER PETAL AT 1147 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS
STORM CAN BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN FORREST AND SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

7

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