Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN KS EARLY THIS EVE IN REGION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INITIATE LATER THIS EVE IN NW/N-CNTRL KS WHEN LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS FOCUSING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850
CONVERGENCE. AN MCS CLUSTER OR TWO SEEMS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT CNTRL/SERN KS LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WARMER
MID-LEVEL PLUME OF AIR. WILL INCLUDE A BEST GUESS TEMPO TS GROUP
AT RSL/SLN/CNU SITES WITH CB GROUPS ELSEWHERE WHERE COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING
MUCH OF DAY MONDAY ONCE ISENTROPIC LIFT WANES IN AM HOURS.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DATA SHOWS A CONTINUED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS:
MAIN ISSUE - CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT WEATHER IMPACTS /SEVERE AND
FLOODING/.  PREDICTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOUND ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  GIVEN THAT...IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR FOR ANY TIME PERIOD FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

ONGOING CONVECTION FESTERING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SEEMS TO BE ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD
THAT EXTENDS FROM KGAG-KMLC.  A SECOND BOUNDARY...SEEMINGLY FROM AN
OUTFLOW...IS ADVANCING SOUTH AND EXTENDS FROM K3K-KEWK-KCNU.

CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN REALLY HAMPERING THE
INSTABILITY.  A LARGE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE LACK
OVERALL HEATING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS BEING BROKEN IS SMALL.
THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT FROM
FORCED ASCENT VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THAT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW PATTERN...THE MOST PREDICTABLE PART OF THIS PATTERN
REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  FROM THAT...JUST DO
NOT SEE HOW WE CAN CONFIDENTLY PREDICT ANYTHING MORE THAN THIS RIGHT
NOW.

FINALLY...THE PROBLEM OF FLOODING.  THESE SYSTEMS HAVE ALL BEEN
FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS AND GIVEN THE CORFIDI VECTORS...BELIEVE
THIS WILL REMAIN SO.  THEREFORE...GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY AND THE
FACT THAT THESE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS...FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH
DESIRABLE THINKING THAT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND PLENTIFUL...VERY
HARD TO FAVOR ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER UNTIL THE 3-6 HOUR TIMEFRAME.

INCREASING HEAT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK:
MAIN ISSUE - HEAT.  PREDICTABILITY IS HIGH.

RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY /ROMP/ SHOWING A HIGH IN
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE 500 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LEADING UP
TO THURSDAY AND SUBSEQUENT RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS FEATURE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN HEAT FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
PREDICTABILITY IS 80 PERCENT OR BETTER WITH LIKELIHOOD OF VERIFYING
BETTER THAN 65 PERCENT.

SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHS 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
RANGE FROM 105 TO 115 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY.  THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  94  71  94 /  70  30  50  30
HUTCHINSON      65  91  68  93 /  70  30  50  30
NEWTON          65  89  69  90 /  70  30  50  30
ELDORADO        63  91  69  91 /  70  30  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  73  94 /  70  20  50  30
RUSSELL         63  86  66  88 /  70  30  50  30
GREAT BEND      63  87  66  88 /  70  20  50  30
SALINA          65  87  69  91 /  70  50  50  30
MCPHERSON       67  89  69  91 /  70  40  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  72  91 /  70  30  50  30
CHANUTE         65  88  72  91 /  70  40  50  30
IOLA            63  86  71  88 /  70  50  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  73  92 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-160330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1029 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY
WHICH COULD CAUSE OR AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...RANGING FROM 105 TO 115 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

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