Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER CAPPED AND ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...AND MAY REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS IT APPEARS LIKE THE MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
IS LESS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. IF THIS CLUSTER CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN IT MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE ONCE IT MOVES INTO
AREAS OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH...WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS
OCCURRING.  THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
STRETCHING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THIS POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SHOULD
STIR UP QUITE A BIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER
IT APPEARS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE CELLS.
LATER TONIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON THE TRACK OF THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A LONG LIVED MCS APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WESTERLIES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE OTHER
HAND IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...GOOD 850MB STORM RELATIVE FLOW. A STRONG COLD POOL COULD
ALSO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CAUSE A PROLONGED WIND EVENT. WE ALSO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE MAINLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN 310-315K.
HOWEVER... THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WE PLAN ON KEEPING SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-MONDAY:
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
AND BRING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

COX

&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A DECENT CUMULUS
FIELD. ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN SW KANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD A KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  92  69  98 /  70  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  91  68  98 /  70  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  91  68  95 /  70  20  20  20
ELDORADO        66  91  69  95 /  70  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  92  70  98 /  60  10  20  10
RUSSELL         64  88  66  98 /  80  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      64  89  67  99 /  80  10  20  10
SALINA          65  89  67  97 /  80  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       65  90  68  97 /  80  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  90  70  97 /  70  20  20  20
CHANUTE         68  89  69  94 /  70  20  20  20
IOLA            66  89  69  93 /  80  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  70  95 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>