Tornado Warning 32, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 150347
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSC077-150430-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090615T0430Z/
HARPER KS-
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
ANTHONY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ANTHONY BY 1055 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLUFF CITY BY 1130 PM CDT.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO AFFECT FREEPORT.

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
STORM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9821 3726 9817 3725 9780 3700 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 278DEG 8KT 3716 9805

$$

JAKUB

000 
WWUS53 KICT 150411
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSC077-150430-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090615T0430Z/
HARPER KS-
1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUFF CITY...OR NEAR ANTHONY...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING STRONG ROTATION JUST SOUTH OF 
ANTHONY...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION DEVELOPING NEAR BLUFF CITY. 

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS DANGEROUS STORM. 

THE DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR BLUFF CITY BY 1125 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9821 3726 9817 3725 9780 3700 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 287DEG 13KT 3711 9795

$$

JAKUB

000 
WWUS53 KICT 150420
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSC077-150430-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090615T0430Z/
HARPER KS-
1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
BLUFF CITY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF ANTHONY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
HARPER COUNTY...INCLUDING BLUFF CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF 
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AROUND 70 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 9810 3723 9808 3725 9780 3700 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 282DEG 12KT 3710 9784

$$

JAKUB

000 
WWUS53 KICT 150428
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSC077-150438-
/O.CAN.KICT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090615T0430Z/
HARPER KS-
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 1128 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE RISK TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3704 9810 3723 9808 3725 9780 3700 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 282DEG 12KT 3709 9781

$$

JAKUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN KS EARLY THIS EVE IN REGION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INITIATE LATER THIS EVE IN NW/N-CNTRL KS WHEN LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS FOCUSING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850
CONVERGENCE. AN MCS CLUSTER OR TWO SEEMS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT CNTRL/SERN KS LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WARMER
MID-LEVEL PLUME OF AIR. WILL INCLUDE A BEST GUESS TEMPO TS GROUP
AT RSL/SLN/CNU SITES WITH CB GROUPS ELSEWHERE WHERE COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING
MUCH OF DAY MONDAY ONCE ISENTROPIC LIFT WANES IN AM HOURS.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DATA SHOWS A CONTINUED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS:
MAIN ISSUE - CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT WEATHER IMPACTS /SEVERE AND
FLOODING/.  PREDICTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOUND ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  GIVEN THAT...IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR FOR ANY TIME PERIOD FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

ONGOING CONVECTION FESTERING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SEEMS TO BE ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD
THAT EXTENDS FROM KGAG-KMLC.  A SECOND BOUNDARY...SEEMINGLY FROM AN
OUTFLOW...IS ADVANCING SOUTH AND EXTENDS FROM K3K-KEWK-KCNU.

CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN REALLY HAMPERING THE
INSTABILITY.  A LARGE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE LACK
OVERALL HEATING...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS BEING BROKEN IS SMALL.
THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT FROM
FORCED ASCENT VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THAT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW PATTERN...THE MOST PREDICTABLE PART OF THIS PATTERN
REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  FROM THAT...JUST DO
NOT SEE HOW WE CAN CONFIDENTLY PREDICT ANYTHING MORE THAN THIS RIGHT
NOW.

FINALLY...THE PROBLEM OF FLOODING.  THESE SYSTEMS HAVE ALL BEEN
FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS AND GIVEN THE CORFIDI VECTORS...BELIEVE
THIS WILL REMAIN SO.  THEREFORE...GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY AND THE
FACT THAT THESE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS...FLOOD WATCH...THOUGH
DESIRABLE THINKING THAT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AND PLENTIFUL...VERY
HARD TO FAVOR ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER UNTIL THE 3-6 HOUR TIMEFRAME.

INCREASING HEAT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK:
MAIN ISSUE - HEAT.  PREDICTABILITY IS HIGH.

RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY /ROMP/ SHOWING A HIGH IN
PREDICTABILITY WITH THE 500 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LEADING UP
TO THURSDAY AND SUBSEQUENT RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS FEATURE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN HEAT FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
PREDICTABILITY IS 80 PERCENT OR BETTER WITH LIKELIHOOD OF VERIFYING
BETTER THAN 65 PERCENT.

SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHS 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
RANGE FROM 105 TO 115 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY.  THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  94  71  94 /  70  30  50  30
HUTCHINSON      65  91  68  93 /  70  30  50  30
NEWTON          65  89  69  90 /  70  30  50  30
ELDORADO        63  91  69  91 /  70  30  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  93  73  94 /  70  20  50  30
RUSSELL         63  86  66  88 /  70  30  50  30
GREAT BEND      63  87  66  88 /  70  20  50  30
SALINA          65  87  69  91 /  70  50  50  30
MCPHERSON       67  89  69  91 /  70  40  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  72  91 /  70  30  50  30
CHANUTE         65  88  72  91 /  70  40  50  30
IOLA            63  86  71  88 /  70  50  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  73  92 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-160330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1029 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY
WHICH COULD CAUSE OR AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...RANGING FROM 105 TO 115 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSZ082-091-150315-
HARPER-KINGMAN-
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER AND KINGMAN COUNTIES...

AT 931 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NASHVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HAIL             ESE ZENDA               37.44N 98.28W
06/14/2009  E1.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME HAIL. WIND 45-50 MPH.

&&

LFW