Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 162201
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

SDC005-162215-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090616T2215Z/
BEADLE SD-
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BEADLE COUNTY...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOLSEY...OR 16 MILES EAST OF MILLER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL WESTERN BEADLE COUNTY THROUGH 510 PM CDT

AT 455 PM CDT...FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE REPORTED ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF 
WOLSEY ON ROUTE 281.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

LAT...LON 4461 9842 4437 9842 4441 9870 4463 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 298DEG 15KT 4451 9867

$$

RSR

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 162211
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

SDC005-162221-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090616T2215Z/
BEADLE SD-
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BEADLE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 515 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4461 9842 4437 9842 4441 9870 4463 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 298DEG 15KT 4448 9861

$$

RSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS NMRS SHWRS CONT TO MOVE SLWLY NEWD ACRS SWRN MN THIS AFTN...INIT
NEW TSTM DVLPMNT HAS BEEN JUST OF NWRN CRNR OF CWA CLOSER TO UPPER
SUPPORT. THIS PRETTY MUCH FIGURES AND STILL EXPCT MORE DVLPMNT DOWN
INTO CWA W OF FSD...PSBLY CLOSE TO JAMES VLY...A LTL LATER THIS
AFTN. THE DECENT HEATG SWRN FCST AREA SHUD HELOP FIRE OFF THE STORMS
NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DECENT HEATG AREA. WITH LESSER UPPER
SUPPORT...THESE STORMS SILL LIKELY TO STAY SCT AT MOST. NEVERTHELESS
MOISTURE INSTBLTY AND SHEAR SEEM AMPLE FOR ISOLD SVR STORMS. WILL
KEEP STORM POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THIS EVE AND DROP THE POPS
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THO A SLGT CHC THRU THE NIGHT SEEMS WISE FAR
ERN/NERN CWA.

PLENTY OF LO LVL MOISTURE SHUD KEEP LOW CLDS OVER ERN ESPLY NERN CWA
THRU THIS EVE...AND SOME INCREASE OR AT LEAST LINGERING EXPECTED
LATE TNGT WITH SLOW COOLING. GUIDNCE TEMPS CANT GO TOO BAD
TNGT...WILL GO WITH LOWS AT TO A DEG OR TWO ABV GUIDNCE IN MOIST
REGIME. AM HOLDING OFF ON FOG MENTN FOR NOW ON MARGINAL CHC WITH
MAIN PRBL NOW BEING EXTENT OF TSTM ACTVTY. /WILLIAMS

INTERESTING SET UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOW
LYING STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WILL LIFT AND GIVEWAY TO STRONG HEATING. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BUILDING DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS.  APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WHILE BETTER LIFT
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE TRAIN GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING AND THEN AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY PROVIDING ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
PORTEND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING.  SHEAR
PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO
2000-3000 J/KG.  EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG A
BOUNDARY.

LOW LYING STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
HAMPERING DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS TO GRUDGINGLY
SHIFT EAST.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY IN THE LATTER PERIODS WITH GFS
AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. MODELS
SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS WITH WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME ACCAS SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH
WARMING ALOFT...WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING IN THE LOWER 20S...NEARLY 5
DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW...SIDED CLOSER TO GFS BUT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET RAISED FORECAST LOWS. FORECAST
AREA MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE RIDER OR TWO HEADED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO CAP BUILDING IN.  WITH GULF WIDE OPEN...APPEARS
AS THOUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. /BT

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING IFR CIGS FAR ERN FCST AREA AT MID AFTN SHUD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY 22Z. OTRW MVFR CIGS SHUD BE PERSISTENT ERN CWA AND MORE
SPOTTY CNTRL CWA INCLUDG HON/FSD TAF SITES. THESE CIGS SHUD TENS TO
SOLIDIFY AGN E AND INCREAS SOME CNTRL FOR THE 17/06Z-15Z PERIOD.
ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASING 3-5SM IN BR SAME PD WITH XOME
LCL 1-3SM BR...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT BLO 1SM UNDER LINGERING
CLOUD COVER. ANY LWR VSBYS SHUD IMPROVE RPDLY TO VFR AFT 17/15Z WITH
CIGS ALSO BREAKING UP OR IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17/18Z.

CONVECTN IN THE FORM OF TSRA WILL OF COURSE PRODUCE LCL AND LIKELY
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS...MAINLY THRU 17/06Z. AS MENTND ABV THIS
CONVECTION SHUD BE SCT.
&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS/BT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-171200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DE SMET SOUTH
DAKOTA TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA. STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO
WALNUT SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10 TO 11 PM
CDT.

OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SPENCER IOWA. STORMS IN THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY LATE IN
THE DAY THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY....AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH PERIODS...FEATURING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AND IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILLIAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
433 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             8 NW WESSINGTON SPRINGS 44.16N 98.69W
06/16/2009  E3.00 INCH       JERAULD            SD   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS INCREASING IN SIZE

0412 PM     HAIL             15 SSW WOLSEY           44.21N 98.59W
06/16/2009  E0.88 INCH       BEADLE             SD   PUBLIC

&&

BT