River Flood Warning 167, NWS Atlanta, GA

000 
WGUS82 KFFC 111551
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1051 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
GEORGIA...
 
  WOODALL CREEK NEAR ATLANTA AFFECTING FULTON COUNTY
&&

GAC121-111621-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0167.000000T0000Z-091111T1551Z/
/WDCG1.1.ER.091111T0937Z.091111T1215Z.091111T1346Z.NO/
1051 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WOODALL CREEK NEAR ATLANTA
* AT 1045 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET...AND 
  FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OBVIOUSLY THE BIG STORY IS THE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY...SEVERAL
CREEKS IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...
AND SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS WILL TAKE SOME
TIME AS ITS ONLY MOVING 10-15MPH...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW STALLS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THE BACK EDGE WILL BEGIN SLOWING DOWN. THE
RAINFALL TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS MUCH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...
AND BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF DIRECT MOISTURE FLUX THE PRECIP RATES
SHOULD GO DOWN AS WELL WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT AND AS IT CONTINUES...LIGHT RAIN MAY SWITCH
TO DRIZZLE. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THIS MORNING...BUT
SINCE IT EXPIRES AT 7AM ITS POSSIBLE IT WONT SHOW UP IN THE ZONE
PRODUCTS.

SHORT-TERM MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES OUT...NAM HAS IT
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN GFS AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART
THE AREA SHOULD BE SUNNY. WELL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WINDS TODAY
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...WILL
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY UP FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL BEAR. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WORKED OUT BETTER
THAN I EXPECTED...BUT LIKE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY...HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS. MAV IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MET (MET CONTINUES WITH SURFACE LOW
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAV). HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY A
BLEND BUT LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WARM-UP ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
AND SIMPLE. UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE US A FAIRLY
PLEASANT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
STRONG UPPER LOW SLIDING OFF THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS WAY
AHEAD OF THE 00Z GFS...BY ABOUT A DAY...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DELAYED THE FRONT AND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z GFS NOW. THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SIMILAR ON BOTH
MODELS...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONGER FRONT. BOTH MODELS
DEPICTING DRY CAD BUILDING IN ON MONDAY...SO THAT MAY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE COLD
FRONT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THAT WEDGE BOUNDARY. THIS ALL REMAINS
TO BE SEEN...STILL A LONG WAY OUT...BUT IN ANY CASE BOTH MODELS
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT IS
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME SO ITS POSSIBLE ONLY PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WILL GET RAIN AS THE LOW LIFTS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS...NO THUNDER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  45  63  46  70 /  60  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         59  47  64  47  68 /  40   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  41  60  39  65 /  40  20  10   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    62  42  63  40  67 /  30   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        63  48  68  46  72 /  40   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  45  63  46  68 /  50  10  10   5   5
MACON           62  48  68  46  73 /  60  10   5   5   5
ROME            64  43  64  40  70 /  20  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  61  43  64  41  69 /  50   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         64  48  62  48  71 /  70  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...
WALTON...WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
444 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS CONTINUED TO RISE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THESE WATERWAYS WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

GAZ006>009-015-110830-
237 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN LUMPKIN...GILMER...
UNION...TOWNS AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EST...

AT 233 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS ACROSS LUMPKIN...GILMER...UNION...TOWNS AND FANNIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND MARION...CAMP MERRILL...
NIMBLEWILL...HAWK MOUNTAIN SHELTER...EAST ELLIJAY...ELLIJAY...
CARTECAY...ROY...PISGAH...CHERRY LOG...BLACK GAP SHELTER...STOVER
CREEK SHELTER...SPRINGER MOUNTAIN SHELTER...BLUE RIDGE AND HIGDON.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.