Areal Flood Warning 64, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EST WED NOV 11 2009

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSFFC) FOR
SOME AREA RAINFALL TOTALS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE IDA HEAVY RAIN
EVENT FROM 9-11 NOVEMBER THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND HANGS OUT FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BEING A STACKED LOW IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO EXIT.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA. MOST OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. AS THE
NEXT H5 TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AND THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD TAKE THE MOISTURE WITH IT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRYING CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WARM UP THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT A REBOUND IN
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A DOWN SLOPING NORTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW. LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE BIAS TABLES INDICATES THE 30 DAY BIAS
ADJUSTMENT IS BEEN DOING BETTER AND WILL USE THESE FOR THE MOS TEMPS
ADJUSTMENT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WESTERN H5 TROUGH
DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEPICTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE CWA. IT WILL BE DRY THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN
AFTER WARDS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG WEDGE BY MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT. THIS COULD PLAY A ROLE
IN THE TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND BY WEDNESDAY DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. THIS WILL KEEP SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY OVER SOME OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR
AND BREAKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEIINGS TO
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10KT...BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  59  45  71  46 /  20  20  10   0   0
ATLANTA         46  62  46  68  49 /   5   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  57  40  64  42 /  10  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  63  42  68  44 /   5   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  67  46  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  60  46  68  48 /  10  10  10   0   0
MACON           48  63  44  73  46 /   5  10   5   0   0
ROME            43  65  41  69  44 /   5   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  45  63  41  69  43 /   5   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         51  61  50  72  52 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
GEORGIA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH WITH BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE
RISEN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
RIVER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.