Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 270525
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXC171-270600-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090427T0600Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
1225 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

AT 1224 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DOSS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF 
MASON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING AND HILLTOP.
MOTORISTS ON HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN LOYAL VALLEY AND CHERRY SPRING 
SHOULD USE ADDITIONAL CAUTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 9896 3050 9886 3047 9885 3037 9887
      3033 9932 3050 9932 3051 9930 3051 9898
      3052 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 259DEG 20KT 3047 9917

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 270541
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXC171-270600-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090427T0600Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
1241 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

AT 1240 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRY SPRING...OR 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE HILLTOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE 
WARNED AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF A 
TORNADO IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A 
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 9896 3050 9886 3047 9885 3037 9887
      3033 9932 3050 9932 3051 9930 3051 9898
      3052 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 259DEG 20KT 3049 9906

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 270553
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXC171-270603-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090427T0600Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
1253 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3051 9896 3050 9886 3047 9885 3037 9887
      3033 9932 3050 9932 3051 9930 3051 9898
      3052 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 259DEG 20KT 3050 9898

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AND BE SLOW TO IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND MAY AFFECT I-35
TERMINALS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DETERIORATING LATER MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

AVIATION...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...THEN TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF AREA TAF SITES. NONETHELESS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AS LIKELIHOOD IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 03Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...AND 06Z AT KDRT. STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO LOWER CIGS
TO IFR DURING THE DAYBREAK HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY 10-15KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM IN AND AROUND TSTMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE 1ST PERIOD WIND GUSTS AND ADD A
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO THE
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS SUITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND AND EJECT OUT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS SEVERE CONVECTION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN EXTENDED FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT
COLD FRONTS WILL REACH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OR STALL FURTHER NORTH.

THE 12 UTC NCEP MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT AS MIGHT BE
EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING ON THE MESOSCALE. WILL IN
GENERAL BASE THE FORECAST ON THE NAM THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WITH
THE CAVEAT OF NOTING THE FEEDBACK FROM THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION WITH THAT MODEL. WILL BLEND ALL MODELS FOR BEYOND
48 HOURS...BUT END UP CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND.

THE UPSHOT IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE
WEST...AND EVENTUALLY SEE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IF THE MCS STAYS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS STORM-FREE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF U.S. 90. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE CONDITIONAL
TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES NONETHELESS. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES SEEM TO HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY.

COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEK...BUT WERE SKEPTICAL THAT THEYLL MAKE IN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CHECK FORECASTS
REGULARLY...AS ANY FRONT THAT MAKES IT INTO THE AREA WOULD SERVE
AS A BOUNDARY FOR HEAVY RAIN.

GENERALLY WENT 2-5F ABOVE GFSMOS TEMPS FOR MOST PERIODS...AND CUT
BACK POPS A BIT DAYS 4-6 SINCE WERE NOT EXPECTING A STALLED FRONT
TO REACH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  85  69  84  70 /  40  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  69  84  68 /  40  50  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  69  86  68 /  30  40  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  81  68  82  70 /  50  50  30  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  86  71  87  71 /  40  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  82  68  83  69 /  50  50  30  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  86  70  85  69 /  30  30  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  69  85  69 /  30  50  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  70  85  69 /  20  50  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  69  87  69 /  30  40  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  70  87  69 /  20  40  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
803 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-280115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
803 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY...METRO AUSTIN...AND THE PLAINS EAST OF
AUSTIN. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAY TWO...MONDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY
AREAS NORTH OF I-10...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.