Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1044 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.UPDATE...
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LEE COUNTY TO NORTHERN
BEXAR COUNTY AND WESTWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY. SO
FAR..THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED WITH MOSTLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL BE SWEEPING EASTWARD TODAY AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. EXPECT CONTINUED ELEVATED CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING..POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MADE FOR TOR 198 VALID UNTIL 1 PM AND ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 4 PM. DEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH BACKBUILDING/TRAINING STORMS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY...ISOLATED TOTALS TO NEAR 5
INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

AVIATION...
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS, OCCASIONALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD KAUS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
STREAMER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE STORM CLUSTER MOVING
NEWD ACROSS N AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK/GEORGETOWN...BUT MOVING AT FAST
ENOUGH PACE TO ONLY WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CONCERN THIS MORNING IS MORE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS POSSIBLE BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE NRN CWA. BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE
STRONG INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE SEVERE FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS NORTH AND ENDED SOUTH.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LONG
RANGE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WITH
GFS INDICATING THE FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MUCH
SLOWER WITH LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  72  85  70  85 /  60  30  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  71  84  69  85 /  50  30  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  85  69  86 /  40  20  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  69  83  68  82 /  60  30  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  74  89  73  90 /  40  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  71  83  69  83 /  60  30  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  73  85  72  87 /  40  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  71  85  69  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  72  85  70  85 /  40  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  72  85  70  85 /  40  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  72  86  71  86 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...
LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

02/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
802 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281315-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
802 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
532 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ESE GEORGETOWN        30.60N 97.56W
04/27/2009                   WILLIAMSON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES SNAPPED, TREES DOWN, SEVERE DAMAGE TO A PORCH

&&

MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     HAIL             8 ESE GEORGETOWN        30.60N 97.56W
04/27/2009  E0.25 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS

&&

MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
714 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 E GEORGETOWN          30.65N  97.53W
04/27/2009                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BETWEEN 12 TO 15 HOMES DAMAGE JUST WEST OF JONAH.
            DAMAGE IS MAINLY DUE TO WINDS AND TREES BEING BLOWN ONTO
            HOMES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00527

MCDONALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
917 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WILLOW CITY         30.43N  98.70W
04/27/2009                   GILLESPIE          TX   PARK SERVICE

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN OVER JUST NORTH OF WILLOW
            CITY ON HIGHWAY 16.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00528

MCDONALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1109 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ183-184-271700-
EDWARDS-VAL VERDE-
1109 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES...

AT 1106 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JUNO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LARGE CLUSTER
WILL COVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF VAL VERDE COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAYS 277 AND 55 WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...JUNO...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.