Flood Watch 1, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.AVIATION...
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS, OCCASIONALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD KAUS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
STREAMER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE STORM CLUSTER MOVING
NEWD ACROSS N AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK/GEORGETOWN...BUT MOVING AT FAST
ENOUGH PACE TO ONLY WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CONCERN THIS MORNING IS MORE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS POSSIBLE BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE NRN CWA. BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE
STRONG INFLOW OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE SEVERE FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS NORTH AND ENDED SOUTH.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LONG
RANGE MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WITH
GFS INDICATING THE FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MUCH
SLOWER WITH LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  72  85  70  85 /  60  30  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  71  84  69  85 /  50  30  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  85  69  86 /  40  20  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  69  83  68  82 /  60  30  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  74  89  73  90 /  20  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  71  83  69  83 /  60  30  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  73  85  72  87 /  30  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  71  85  69  85 /  50  20  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  72  85  70  85 /  40  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  72  85  70  85 /  30  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  72  86  71  86 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
517 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
517 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
139 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

TXZ171-172-188-190-270800-
LLANO-BURNET-GILLESPIE-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...FREDERICKSBURG...
BLANCO
139 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

AT 130 AM CDT...A VERY LARGE THUNDERSTORM SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
GILLESPIE COUNTY. EARLIER THIS EVENING...THIS STORM PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...BUT DIME-SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
GILLESPIE...LLANO...BLANCO...AND BURNET COUNTIES. PEOPLE IN THOSE
COUNTIES SHOULD BE ALERT AND MONITOR THE SITUATION CAREFULLY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
532 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ESE GEORGETOWN        30.60N 97.56W
04/27/2009                   WILLIAMSON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES SNAPPED, TREES DOWN, SEVERE DAMAGE TO A PORCH

&&

MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     HAIL             8 ESE GEORGETOWN        30.60N 97.56W
04/27/2009  E0.25 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS

&&

MITCHELL