Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF HERE...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S. THE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.

ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS DEVELOPING
MCS WILL PROPAGATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD NORTHERN ALABAMA. IN FACT
LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY
AS EARLY AS 5 TO 7 AM AND THE SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY. MAIN
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10
AM AND 8 PM. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS COULD BE A SCENARIO IN WHICH
THE AREA IS HIT WITH TWO PHASES. THE FIRST WOULD BE THE MCS ACROSS
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MORNING AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH AS
WELL AS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT THIS REALLY DEPENDS ON RAINFALL
RATES AND ANY TRAINING THAT MAY OCCUR. THIS DISTURBANCE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WOULD NOT SURPRISED FOR RADAR ON THURSDAY TO LOOK MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND SET UP SHOP MUCH LIKE
THIS PAST WEEK...NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE IN THE
LINE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTER THIS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DIFFER WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS AGREEMENT. 00Z RUNS KEPT THE TROUGH IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE 6Z AND 12Z RUNS ARE
BUILDING IN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR
THIS TO PAN OUT AND GET INTO MORE OF AGREEMENT...BUT COULD BE THE
START OF THE NEXT PATTERN SHIFT. MORE ON THIS AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ON GOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT TOI AND MGM THROUGH
03Z.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS DE-STABILIZE MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THEY WILL
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 15Z AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.
CEILINGS THROUGH 10Z MAINLY 3000 TO 5000 WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.  CEILINGS 2000 TO 3000 FEET AFTER 08Z WITH
TEMPORARY CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FEET IN AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KSL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-061635-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10 AM AND 8 PM. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ALZ046-048-050-052245-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-RUSSELL-
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR...BULLOCK AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ABERFOIL...OR 5 MILES WEST OF MIDWAY...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ABERFOIL.
  THREE NOTCH.
  MIDWAY.
  GUERRYTON.
  SPRING HILL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ALZ039-060000-
MARENGO-
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 618 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUTNAM...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINDEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PUTNAM.
  NICHOLSVILLE.
  SWEET WATER.
  WAYNE.
  MILLER.
  SHILOH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ALZ040-060015-
DALLAS-
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOYKIN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMDEN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  TILDEN.
  CARLOWVILLE.
  BELKNAP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ALZ039-060045-
MARENGO-
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 657 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILLER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF LINDEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MILLER.
  SHILOH.
  OCTAGON.
  MAGNOLIA.
  THOMASTON.
  DAYTON.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON

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