Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SLOWLY BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW OVER
SCNTRL VA...NORTHERLY WINDS STILL NOTED AT LYH/ORF...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT MTV/DAN/FVX. TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OR OUR NC
CNTYS AND ALL VA CNTYS EXCEPT FOR THE ERN SHORE. MSAS 3 HR
PRESSURE FALLS OF  3MB NOTED ACRS MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW LVL WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS (FROM MAINLY SSW CURRENTLY TO SOUTH OR PERHAPS SSE).
THIS WILL BE KEY FOR INITIATION OF ANY TORNADIC STORMS AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY...STILL LIMITED
OVER EXTREME NW ZONES (FLUVANNA/LOUISA)...AND ON THE ERN SHORE
(PARTICULARLY IN MD). THE OTHER LMTG FACTOR...WILL BE DRIER
AIR/MIXING FROM THE SW (DEW PTS DROPPING INTO 50S) WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS EVENING (AND HAVE SEVERE WORDING
IN THE ZONES FOR AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH). MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER IN AFTER 02-04Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AND HAVE
DROPPED OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES OVER WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA...KEEPING
20-30% CHANCES EAST (ALTHOUGH ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DONE). LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND
MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST SKIES BECOME PTLY SUNNY (OR EVEN MSTLY SUNNY
FOR AWHILE) TUE MORNING. UPR LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK CLOSER TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN...AND UPR COLD POOL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR INCRSG CLOUDS BY ERLY AFTN...AND EVENTUALLY SCTD SHWRS AND
TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTN. SVR THREAT (AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP) IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...MAINLY DUE TO DRY LOW LVLS (WSW FLOW)
AND LACK OF A STRG SFC CONVERGENCE MECHANISM. HAVE CAPPED PRECIP
CHANCES AT 30% EAST AND 40% WEST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN LEADING TO HIGH AFTN LAPSE RATES...AND
FREEZING LVLS DROPPING TO 7 TO 8 K FT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

TUE NGT/WED...KEEPING CHC POPS TUE EVENING AS VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES DIVING SE INTO THE CAROLINAS...THEN EXPECT DRYING FROM
THE WEST AND WENT DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT (NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE).
LOWS IN THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOWS FURTHER DRYING IN THE LOW LVLS
BUT WILL KEEP A LOW CHC (20-30%) FOR SHWRS ACRS MUCH OF VA AND MD
FOR THE AFTN AS GFS/NAM SHOW ONE FINAL VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH.
COOLER W/ HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

SFC HIGH PROGGED TO BUILD NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST ON THU. EXPECT
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR/MID 60S ON THE
ERN SHORE TO AROUND 70 INTERIOR SRN VA ND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL CONT TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THIS PACKAGE. SFC RIDGE SLIDES
OFF THE SE COAST FRI & TAKES A PSN IN BERMUDA FASHION THIS WKEND.
UPSHOT WILL BE THE FIRST SUMMER TMPS OF THE YR WITH H85 TMPS (+16C)
SPRTG READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S...75-80 AT THE COAST. A BIT MORE
HUMIDITY THAN RECENT WRM DAYS WITH DP TMPS IN THE 50S. WRMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SAT AS A THERMAL TROF IS PROGGED IN LEE OF MTS. (U80S
PSBL PIEDMONT). A FEW MORE CLDS XPCTD SUN WITH TMPS STILL IN THE
80S. NXT FTR WILL BE A BKDR CDFRNT PROGGED TO MOVE S AND INTO THE MD
ERN SHORE AREA BY LATE MON AFTRN. ANTHR SUMMER LIKE DAY TO THE S OF
THIS BNDRY WITH READINGS U70S-M80S. WILL KEEP IT DRY ON MON SINCE
ANY FROPA NOT XPCTD UNTIL LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FNTL BNDRY LYING ACRS SOUTHERN MD/DE BORDER. SE TO SLY FLOW
BEHIND BNDRY WILL GRDLY RAISE CIGS FOR RIC AND SBY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CNVTV (MAINLY OVER NE NC) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVE AS CDFNT FM W CRSS RGN. WSWLY FLO TNGT/TUE/WED W/ PDS OF MVFR
(CIGS) AND PTNTL SCTD SHRAS. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMISH LATER THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL IFR FOR RIC AND SBY BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING
AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS. CHC MVFR WITH SHWRS AND CIGS
TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND COMBINES
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. VFR RETURNING LT WED/END OF THE WK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BLDS IN FROM W.

&&

.MARINE...
CONT CRNT SCA HEADLINES ALRDY IN PLACE. GUSTY S WWNDS AHEAD OF
CDFRNT CONT THIS EVE B4 BCMG SW AND DMNSHG AFTR FROPA TO UNDER SCA
LVLS ACROSS CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND. SEAS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL CONT SCA ACROSS CSTL WTRS INTO TUE. WAVE WATCH
STILL SHOWING SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS NRN WTRS INTO TUE NITE...SO HAVE
XTNDD THE SCA THRU 10Z WED.

P-GRDNT INCRS WNDS WED TO NR SCA LVLS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE THE ONE
HEADLINE DEALING WITH ONGOING EVENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-212015-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-212015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ654-212015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ656-658-212015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-212015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 178 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>098-212015-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
415 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 178 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WAKEFIELD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

BROWN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMSBURG            37.27N 76.71W
04/20/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF WILLIAMSBU VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL BETWEEN 530 AND 545 PM

&&

RCURRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE YORKTOWN          37.15N 76.47W
04/20/2009                   YORK               VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            JUST N OF PHF AIRPORT NEAR ORIANA RD AND ELM DR...8 LARGE
            TREES AND A TELEPHONE POLE SNAPPED OFF

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE YORKTOWN          37.17N 76.47W
04/20/2009                   YORK               VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RV PICKED UP AND MOVED...NEAR GRAFTON DR JUST OFF RTE 17

&&

LYLE ALEXANDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

VAZ067>070-080-210000-
AMELIA VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE VA-NOTTOWAY VA-POWHATAN VA-
657 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMELIA COURTHOUSE TO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CREWE...OR FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMELIA
COURTHOUSE TO BLACKSTONE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AMELIA COURTHOUSE AROUND 705 PM EDT...
  MANNBORO AROUND 725 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.
IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BROWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
726 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

VAZ088>094-210030-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-SOUTHAMPTON
VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-YORK VA-
726 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WAKEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DENDRON AT 730 PM EDT...ELBERON AT
735 PM EDT...BEACHLAND AT 740 PM EDT...ALLIANCE AT 745 PM EDT...
CHIPPOKES STATE PARK AT 750 PM EDT...HOG ISLAND GAME REFUGE AT 755 PM
EDT.

EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM. RUNOFF WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

44