Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SLOWLY BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW OVER
SCNTRL VA...NORTHERLY WINDS STILL NOTED AT LYH/ORF...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT MTV/DAN/FVX. TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OR OUR NC
CNTYS AND ALL VA CNTYS EXCEPT FOR THE ERN SHORE. MSAS 3 HR
PRESSURE FALLS OF  3MB NOTED ACRS MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW LVL WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS (FROM MAINLY SSW CURRENTLY TO SOUTH OR PERHAPS SSE).
THIS WILL BE KEY FOR INITIATION OF ANY TORNADIC STORMS AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY...STILL LIMITED
OVER EXTREME NW ZONES (FLUVANNA/LOUISA)...AND ON THE ERN SHORE
(PARTICULARLY IN MD). THE OTHER LMTG FACTOR...WILL BE DRIER
AIR/MIXING FROM THE SW (DEW PTS DROPPING INTO 50S) WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS EVENING (AND HAVE SEVERE WORDING
IN THE ZONES FOR AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH). MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER IN AFTER 02-04Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AND HAVE
DROPPED OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES OVER WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA...KEEPING
20-30% CHANCES EAST (ALTHOUGH ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DONE). LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND
MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST SKIES BECOME PTLY SUNNY (OR EVEN MSTLY SUNNY
FOR AWHILE) TUE MORNING. UPR LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK CLOSER TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN...AND UPR COLD POOL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR INCRSG CLOUDS BY ERLY AFTN...AND EVENTUALLY SCTD SHWRS AND
TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTN. SVR THREAT (AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP) IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...MAINLY DUE TO DRY LOW LVLS (WSW FLOW)
AND LACK OF A STRG SFC CONVERGENCE MECHANISM. HAVE CAPPED PRECIP
CHANCES AT 30% EAST AND 40% WEST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG LATE APRIL SUN LEADING TO HIGH AFTN LAPSE RATES...AND
FREEZING LVLS DROPPING TO 7 TO 8 K FT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

TUE NGT/WED...KEEPING CHC POPS TUE EVENING AS VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES DIVING SE INTO THE CAROLINAS...THEN EXPECT DRYING FROM
THE WEST AND WENT DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT (NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE).
LOWS IN THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOWS FURTHER DRYING IN THE LOW LVLS
BUT WILL KEEP A LOW CHC (20-30%) FOR SHWRS ACRS MUCH OF VA AND MD
FOR THE AFTN AS GFS/NAM SHOW ONE FINAL VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH.
COOLER W/ HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

SFC HIGH PROGGED TO BUILD NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST ON THU. EXPECT
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR/MID 60S ON THE
ERN SHORE TO AROUND 70 INTERIOR SRN VA ND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL CONT TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THIS PACKAGE. SFC RIDGE SLIDES
OFF THE SE COAST FRI & TAKES A PSN IN BERMUDA FASHION THIS WKEND.
UPSHOT WILL BE THE FIRST SUMMER TMPS OF THE YR WITH H85 TMPS (+16C)
SPRTG READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S...75-80 AT THE COAST. A BIT MORE
HUMIDITY THAN RECENT WRM DAYS WITH DP TMPS IN THE 50S. WRMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SAT AS A THERMAL TROF IS PROGGED IN LEE OF MTS. (U80S
PSBL PIEDMONT). A FEW MORE CLDS XPCTD SUN WITH TMPS STILL IN THE
80S. NXT FTR WILL BE A BKDR CDFRNT PROGGED TO MOVE S AND INTO THE MD
ERN SHORE AREA BY LATE MON AFTRN. ANTHR SUMMER LIKE DAY TO THE S OF
THIS BNDRY WITH READINGS U70S-M80S. WILL KEEP IT DRY ON MON SINCE
ANY FROPA NOT XPCTD UNTIL LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FNTL BNDRY LYING ACRS SOUTHERN MD/DE BORDER. SE TO SLY FLOW
BEHIND BNDRY WILL GRDLY RAISE CIGS FOR RIC AND SBY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CNVTV (MAINLY OVER NE NC) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVE AS CDFNT FM W CRSS RGN. WSWLY FLO TNGT/TUE/WED W/ PDS OF MVFR
(CIGS) AND PTNTL SCTD SHRAS. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMISH LATER THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL IFR FOR RIC AND SBY BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING
AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS. CHC MVFR WITH SHWRS AND CIGS
TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND COMBINES
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. VFR RETURNING LT WED/END OF THE WK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BLDS IN FROM W.

&&

.MARINE...
CONT CRNT SCA HEADLINES ALRDY IN PLACE. GUSTY S WWNDS AHEAD OF
CDFRNT CONT THIS EVE B4 BCMG SW AND DMNSHG AFTR FROPA TO UNDER SCA
LVLS ACROSS CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND. SEAS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL CONT SCA ACROSS CSTL WTRS INTO TUE. WAVE WATCH
STILL SHOWING SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS NRN WTRS INTO TUE NITE...SO HAVE
XTNDD THE SCA THRU 10Z WED.

P-GRDNT INCRS WNDS WED TO NR SCA LVLS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE THE ONE
HEADLINE DEALING WITH ONGOING EVENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...MPR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
254 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 ENE NORVIEW           36.89N 76.23W
04/20/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF NORFOLK    VA   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL HALPRIN DR IN ROOSEVELT GARDENS

&&

RCURRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             8 NE NORFOLK INTERNATIO 36.98N 76.10W
04/20/2009  E0.75 INCH       ANZ632             VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL GREENBRIAR MALL AREA

&&

RCURRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

VAZ099-100-202000-
ACCOMACK VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-
257 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO **LOCATION**...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KIPTOPEKE STATE PARK
AT 305 PM EDT...CAPEVILLE AT 310 PM EDT...OYSTER AT 315 PM EDT...
SIMPKINS AT 320 PM EDT...EASTVILLE AT 325 PM EDT...MACHIPONGO AT 330
PM EDT.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             8 NE NORFOLK INTERNATIO 36.98N 76.10W
04/20/2009  E0.75 INCH       ANZ632             VA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL GREENBRIAR MALL AREA

0245 PM     HAIL             1 ENE NORVIEW           36.89N 76.23W
04/20/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF NORFOLK    VA   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL HALPRIN DR IN ROOSEVELT GARDENS

&&

RCURRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             GREENBRIER              36.78N 76.21W
04/20/2009  E0.75 INCH       CITY OF VIRGINIA B VA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL GREENBRIAR MALL AREA

&&

RCURRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

VAZ065>068-070-071-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-202115-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH HILL...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...
RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...
WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...FRANKLIN
355 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...

EXPECT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA.
REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SMF