Alert archive / Alaska / Wind Advisories in 2009
Wind Advisory 85, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this wind advisory at Nov 22, 2009, 4:44 AM AKST. It took effect at Nov 23, 2009, 12:00 AM AKST. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 22, 2009, 4:44 AM AKST (13:44 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 23, 2009, 12:00 AM AKST
- Expired
- Nov 23, 2009, 9:00 AM AKST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWAK77 PAJK 221344 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 444 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 AKZ027-230100- /X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T1800Z/ DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK 444 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ028-230100- /X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T2100Z/ SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA 444 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ023-029-230100- /X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T1200Z-091123T2100Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...HYDER 444 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$
5 follow-up statements
000 WWAK77 PAJK 230040 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 340 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 AKZ023-230800- /X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T2100Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER 340 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ027-230800- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T1800Z/ DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK 340 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ028-230800- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T2100Z/ SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA 340 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ029-230800- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T1200Z-091123T2100Z/ MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER 340 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ BECKER
000 WWAK77 PAJK 230705 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1005 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 AKZ027-231400- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T1800Z/ DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK 1005 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ023-028-231400- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T0900Z-091123T2100Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...KETCHIKAN... METLAKATLA 1005 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ029-231400- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.091123T1200Z-091123T2100Z/ MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER 1005 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$
000 WWAK77 PAJK 231330 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 430 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 AKZ018-232000- /X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0086.091124T0300Z-091124T1200Z/ TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY 430 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ023-028-029-231800- /X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-091123T1800Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...KETCHIKAN... METLAKATLA...HYDER 430 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ027-231800- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-091123T1800Z/ DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK 430 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$
000 WWAK77 PAJK 231333 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 433 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 AKZ023-027>029-231800- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-091123T1800Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG... KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER 433 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$ AKZ018-232100- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0086.091124T0300Z-091124T1200Z/ TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY 433 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$
000 WWAK77 PAJK 231741 NPWAJK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 841 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 AKZ023-027>029-231845- /X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-091123T1800Z/ CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA- SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG... KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER 841 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. $$ AKZ018-240045- /X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0086.091124T0300Z-091124T1200Z/ TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY 841 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 345 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 21, 2:32 PM AKST, 14 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 2:32 PM AKST, 14 hours 12 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A 983 MB LOW
SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING LAND FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST. THE
PRECIP BAND, THAT WAS SEEN ON PACG RADAR THIS MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT IS RELATIVELY NARROW. THE PRECIP HAS JUST REACHED JUNEAU
AND GUSTAVUS, BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND HAS ALREADY REACHED
SITKA. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS IN THE CARDS FOR SITKA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIP TYPE SO FAR HAS BEEN ALL SNOW NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KAKE TO PERL STRAIT WITH A MIX TO ALL RAIN SOUTH.
EXCEPT FOR HYDER WHERE IT HAS BEEN SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH FROM
SNOW TO RAIN AND BACK AGAIN MOST OF THE MORNING.
HIGHEST WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE E-W INNER
CHANNELS, CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MOSTLY IN THE
REALM OF SCA WINDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS AND PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
LOW AND THE FRONT WEAKEN AND BREAK APART. THE LOW WILL NOT EVEN
MAKE IT TO SHORE BEFORE IT WEAKENS AWAY TO NOTHING JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT SO NO ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW DOES FALL.
FOR TOMORROW, NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. STILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH AND EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF. IT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL BANDS
FROM OUR NEXT SYSTEM START MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE GULF.
FORECAST TODAY WAS UPDATED WITH THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE EC
BLENDED IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF WHILE THE OTHER MODELS PLACED IT
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST. IT ALSO SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE EC APPEARED TO HAVE
A BETTER GRASP ON THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ELECTED TO
START BLENDING IN MORE EC TOWARD THE HANDOFF WITH THE LONG TERM
DESK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY SINCE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE CURRENT SYSTEM, BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE COMPLETELY CAPTURE WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON. AS SUCH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS START
APPEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FROM LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND DRIFT DEVELOPING LOWS
INTO THE GULF AND SEND IN WARMER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. WHERE
CHANGES WERE MADE USED THE 12Z EC THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BLENDED
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HPC. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT THE EC
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AND THE THE 12Z RUN
KEPT A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IN WED AND THIS FIT WELL WITH
THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS WAS LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE NW
GULF MUCH FASTER AND WAS NOT PREFERRED. OTHER WISE THE THERE WAS
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL EC/NAFES AND THE EC
ENSEMBLE SO WITH THAT SAID FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO GOOD.
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE AK SUN NIGHT WITH
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO OVERRUNNING WHILE THE
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN THE
PRECIP WILL START AND THE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN. AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
SE. ATTM THE NORTH-CENTRAL INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE POSSIBLE SNOW
ADVY AMOUNTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRECIP TURNS TO RAIN. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
PAHN AMOUNTS MAY BE MUCH LARGER WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE HEAVY SNOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE 2 FT NEAR THE BORDER ALONG THE
HAINES HIGHWAY AND NEAR WHITE PASS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.
AS FOR WINDS WITH THE FRONT...GALES FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
E/W CHANNELS WITH MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES BUT CHANGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MON. OVER THE GULF
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A BARRIER
JET WILL FORM SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON. THE REST
OF THE GULF WILL SEE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SW
25KT MON AFTERNOON. OVER LAND THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS
INCREASE TO WIND ADVY LEVELS THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A 70KT LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY MON AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL INCREASE AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THERE WILL BE 3/4 MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE THE WEEK BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SO MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE TIMES OF SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL NOT GET ABOVE 3500 FEET. A VERY
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
ASSOCIATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL BRING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE AREA AND RAISE THE
FREEZING LEVEL TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. AS THAT LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA
THURS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND IT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-041-043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.
&&
EAL/ABJThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Nov 22, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 days | |
| Nov 22, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Nov 22, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Nov 22, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AJK | 60 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.