Storm Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 230029
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231400-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N TO NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF AND SE ALASKA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 231230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW JUST E OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KENAI
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE N AND DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TUE. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND SE ALASKA TODAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 

$$

PKZ310-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A 983 MB LOW
SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING LAND FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST. THE
PRECIP BAND, THAT WAS SEEN ON PACG RADAR THIS MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT IS RELATIVELY NARROW. THE PRECIP HAS JUST REACHED JUNEAU
AND GUSTAVUS, BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND HAS ALREADY REACHED
SITKA. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS IN THE CARDS FOR SITKA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIP TYPE SO FAR HAS BEEN ALL SNOW NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KAKE TO PERL STRAIT WITH A MIX TO ALL RAIN SOUTH.
EXCEPT FOR HYDER WHERE IT HAS BEEN SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH FROM
SNOW TO RAIN AND BACK AGAIN MOST OF THE MORNING.

 HIGHEST WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE E-W INNER
CHANNELS, CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MOSTLY IN THE
REALM OF SCA WINDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS.

 WINDS AND PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
LOW AND THE FRONT WEAKEN AND BREAK APART. THE LOW WILL NOT EVEN
MAKE IT TO SHORE BEFORE IT WEAKENS AWAY TO NOTHING JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT SO NO ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW DOES FALL.

 FOR TOMORROW, NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. STILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH AND EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF. IT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL BANDS
FROM OUR NEXT SYSTEM START MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE GULF.

 FORECAST TODAY WAS UPDATED WITH THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE EC
BLENDED IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF WHILE THE OTHER MODELS PLACED IT
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST. IT ALSO SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE EC APPEARED TO HAVE
A BETTER GRASP ON THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ELECTED TO
START BLENDING IN MORE EC TOWARD THE HANDOFF WITH THE LONG TERM
DESK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY SINCE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE CURRENT SYSTEM, BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE COMPLETELY CAPTURE WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON. AS SUCH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS START
APPEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FROM LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND DRIFT DEVELOPING LOWS
INTO THE GULF AND SEND IN WARMER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. WHERE
CHANGES WERE MADE USED THE 12Z EC THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BLENDED
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HPC. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT THE EC
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AND THE THE 12Z RUN
KEPT A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IN WED AND THIS FIT WELL WITH
THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS WAS LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE NW
GULF MUCH FASTER AND WAS NOT PREFERRED. OTHER WISE THE THERE WAS
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL EC/NAFES AND THE EC
ENSEMBLE SO WITH THAT SAID FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO GOOD.

AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE AK SUN NIGHT WITH
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO OVERRUNNING WHILE THE
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN THE
PRECIP WILL START AND THE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN. AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
SE. ATTM THE NORTH-CENTRAL INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE POSSIBLE SNOW
ADVY AMOUNTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRECIP TURNS TO RAIN. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
PAHN AMOUNTS MAY BE MUCH LARGER WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE HEAVY SNOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE 2 FT NEAR THE BORDER ALONG THE
HAINES HIGHWAY AND NEAR WHITE PASS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

AS FOR WINDS WITH THE FRONT...GALES FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
E/W CHANNELS WITH MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES BUT CHANGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MON. OVER THE GULF
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A BARRIER
JET WILL FORM SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON. THE REST
OF THE GULF WILL SEE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SW
25KT MON AFTERNOON. OVER LAND THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS
INCREASE TO WIND ADVY LEVELS THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A 70KT LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY MON AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL INCREASE AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THERE WILL BE 3/4 MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE THE WEEK BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SO MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE TIMES OF SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL NOT GET ABOVE 3500 FEET. A VERY
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
ASSOCIATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL BRING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE AREA AND RAISE THE
FREEZING LEVEL TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. AS THAT LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA
THURS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND IT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-041-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

EAL/ABJ