Storm Warning 37, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF PUSHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. INFRA RED
LOOP REVEALS A STRONG SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST WITH ITS TRIPLE POINT MOVING ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE. ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STARTED SOUTHWEST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY IN THE MORNING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT TRIGGERING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST. ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH NOON AND
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CORRESPONDING COASTAL WATERS AND
ZONES. AT 1115 AM...A PILOT REPORTED FOUR WATERSPOUTS NEAR CAPE
FANSHAW AND FIVE FINGER AREAS MOVING NORTH. ISSUED A SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE AND FREDERICK SOUND FOR
45 MINUTES. OTHERWISE...ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SITKA SOUTH TO KETCHIKAN. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL
WATERS. A SECOND WRAP OF PRECIPITATION BAND AND STRONG WINDS IS
NOTED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF...CONTINUE MARCHING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 974 MB LOW WEST OF SITKA
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING TO 987 MB SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT
BAY BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. WILL LEAN OVER THE NAM SOLUTIONS
BLENDING INTO THE INHERITED GRIDS TO BRING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE
FORWARDING SPEED OF THE LOW THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WILL SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT...BUT NORTHERLY SMALL
CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVING OF THE LOW
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SECOND WRAP...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
CRAIG AND PETERSBURG AREAS NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM.
SITKA AND ELFIN COVE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT. AS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODLES START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HRS AND
BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY 120 HRS THROUGH REMAINDER OF LONG TERM.
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO HOW CENTRAL PAC EX TROPICAL MOISTURE MERGES
INTO JET STREAM WED-THU. EC MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEEPENING
STRONG LOW OVER SE GULF WHILE GFS FAVORING DEEPENING SECOND LOW.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK BOTH AGREE ON A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE THAT
WILL TAKE MAIN STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO PACIFIC NW. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS WILL STICK WITH HPC GRIDS DAY 4 AND
BEYOND WHICH IS A GENERAL COMPROMISE

FOR MON AND TUESDAY WILL SEE FAIRLY STRONG BUT FLAT MARITIME HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING. EXPECT MIN WESTERLY GALES ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND SOLID SMCR NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. WIND EASES TUE NIGHT AND
WED BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SE GALES FOR EASTERN GULF AND APPROACHING
NE GALES FOR INNER CHANNELS BY LATE WED. ON WED NORTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN NE FLOW AS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES TO SE GULF WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES SEE ANOTHER MODERATE
OCCLUSION LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT/THU. ANOTHER LOW
LIFTS INTO SE GULF FRIDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR NORTH AND THIS
WHOLE PACKAGE SLIDES OFF TO SE WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS BRINGS A CHANGE TO DRIER COLDER CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF PANHANDLE BY NEXT SATURDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ026-027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028-029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>035-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032.

&&

AHN/MM

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