Storm Warning 34, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 250752 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-252345-
934 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE N AND INLAND THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK. 

$$

PKZ041-252345-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1145 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-252345-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
934 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-252345-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1145 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 40 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-252345-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1145 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL.
SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-252345-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1145 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 251158
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-260100-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG 974 MB LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL LIFT NORTH TO
BE JUST S OF YAKUTAT BY SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTH INTO INTERIOR MON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER
THE GULF AND SE AK MON. 

$$

PKZ041-260100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-260100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.MON...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-260100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-260100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-260100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2009 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1258 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DRIFTING
LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A TRIPLE POINT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PASSING OVER CAPE SPENCER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A RIDGE
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS COAST MOUNTAIN PRODUCES BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LOW APPEARS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE PROXIMITY AND TRACKING OF THE LOW ALSO
APPEAR NOT TO LEAD ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THUS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR ZONES 17...22 AND 23.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INLAND BY
EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TIGHTENING EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS BEGINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH TO COVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS WITH OCEAN ENTRANCES.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...PROGRESSIVE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEPICTED IN GLOBAL
MODELS FOR LONG RANGE. THIS MEANS TRANSITIONS FROM TROUGH TO RIDGE
TO TROUGH NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THE TRANSITIONS HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS PAST FEW DAYS. THE MOST BASIC EFFECT
BY OPERATIONAL GFS IS WET START TO WEEK THEN H5 RIDGING OVER GULF
STARTING ABOUT THUR AND INCREASING COOL/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGRESSES SAME UPPER RIDGE INLAND TO ROCKIES BY FRI
AND MORE WET SW FLOW INTO PANHANDLE. ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE /RMOP/ IS
HIGHEST WITH TROUGHING OVER SW CONUS RIDGING NW US/CANADA AND N
PAC TROFS OF ALEUTIANS. PREVIOUS FCSTS LEANING MORE TO GFS DUE TO
LESS RUN TO RUN VARIATION. WILL KEEP SCREAMING MESSAGE AT START OF
EXTENDED RANGE TO BE WET SUN NIGHT TURNING TO SHOWERS MONDAY.
PROBABLE SCA WINDS FROM RISING PRESSURE TENDENCY.

WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER
DID START THE TREND OF DRIER/COOLER WEATHER IN THE GRIDS DAY 5 ONWARD
TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE CONSISTENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE. WHILE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER WEATHER DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA HAVE NOT COOLED TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. THEREFORE DID NOT COOL TEMPERATURES BUT A FEW DEGREES IN
EXTENDED AS OF YET. OTHERWISE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED
WERE MADE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW DAY 5 ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKDT SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032.

&&

AHN/TA/PSS